Turkey: We need to clarify the actual installed power

Today, we will bring important figure to the energy market employees. The recently announced installed power generation is 85,200 megawatts. We have peak figure - as of August 2017 - it is around 49-50 thousand MWe. The national grid system is having difficulties in supply electricity in case of local demand above 50,000 MWe. One other calculation is as follows. As of 2017, Turkey generated 300 billion Kwh electricity. If you divide that figure into total number of hours per year (8760 hours), you get an average figure of 34 thousand MWe.

There are thermal power plants that have not been operated in 85.200 MWe. There are power plants that have not generated electricity at all for the last 9-10 years. There are hydroelectric power plants which are not in operation.

There are solar power plants operating at 2500 hours a year and wind farms operating at 3000 hours a year. Availabilities of these plants are low but they are added in full capacity in installed power.

Idle power plants are not deducted from inventory list. What is the reason? Those public workers on official duty do not talk, but retirees are commenting. A long and fruitless procedure is required. Decision of political will, official decree is required for deduction.

Hopa thermal power plant has not been in operation for the last 10 years. Tunçbilek Thermal Power Plant's 1-2 units have not been in operation for the last 15 years and it is doubtful that they will be able to work after that. Two units of Afşin-A Thermal Power Plant have not been working for the last 10 years. Other units do not reach to full capacity. Afşin-B Thermal Power Plant repair is completed after the fire during maintenance.

Hamitabat old 1154 MWe combined cycle thermal power plant is not running and do not operate at full load. It does not work at all because a new plant has been rebuilt nearby from scratch and is on. But the old one still appears on the installed power list.

If you collect the power of power plants that are not working or are not taken out of inventory because of the prolonged procedure, you are doing a great miscalculation. When talking about the total installed capacity, you take into account this situation, you need use actual figures.

The same situation also had used for visible- total proven coal reserves in Turkey. Fortunately, the actual proven capacity figure was finally corrected by the responsible public organization.

International companies, international organizations (World Bank, International Energy Agency IEA, especially the US DOE and EIA) interested in our market make this improvement for us.

They keep our installed power in more realistic numbers. We hope that we will make the necessary corrections in the near future, and we will not continue to mislead ourselves, we will be realistic.

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Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.

This article is written for "EurasiaReview" web site release.

Ankara March 26, 2018

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Isaac Asimov was right

There is a futuristic comment made by Russian-born American science-fiction writer Isaac Asimov (1920-1999) in his story titled "The Feeling of Power (1958)". People will get used to computing machines, devices, and calculators in such a distant future that they will eventually forget 4-simple math operations. During a galactic war, all of these devices will disappear, in the end they will "reverse engineer" and find it again in time. In the year 1958 this story was released, there were no computers, no calculators.

In the past week, in one of Turkey's leading a major university engineering faculties, the graduate students are entering an exam.

Their professor forbids to use iPhone and all simple calculators.

"You can answer all the questions with normal 4-simple math operations, put only 2 digits after the comma, and write the answer"

The exam is over, the papers are collected. Professor reads the exam papers, only two people in a class of 30 people can make the proper math transactions. Most of them can only do addition and subtraction, but not multiplication and division. This is not only in Turkey. It is also valid in many other countries, since people forget to make basic calculations and concentrate their attention to upper level problems.

When I finished school and started to work, there was only a simple 4-operation calculator in the office. We used each other in turn. Later in 1984, while working for a private company in the marketing department, there was no calculator. He made all the steam boiler calculations manually on paper. I asked the Boss once for a calculator, he refused to buy. He did not get me a calculator, but there was a big screen workstation on his desk, he did not know how to use. You can still make 4-simple math operations with your pencil on a sheet of blank paper, right?

Ankara March 25, 2018

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Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.

This article is written for "EurasiaReview" web site release.

Giselle Ballet

"Giselle" Ballet at Ankara Opera Ballet Theater

The two-act "Giselle" ballet music was composed by Adolphe Adam. Giselle Ballet was first performed in Salle de Palatier in Paris in 1841.

It was a sensational success in the premiere night, and then has been replayed in Europe, America and Russia for years. The ballet has been performed in the Ankara Conservatory repertoire since 1964. It is also on stage in Istanbul, AKM, Süreyya and Zorlu PSM venues as modern and classical. Ballet depicts a romantic love story.

The "Classic" Jean Coralli- Jules Perrot choreography will be on again in Ankara. This beautiful ballet will take place on the Ankara Opera Ballet stage on 24 (Premier) - 29 - 31 March 2018, and 14 - April 2018.

Conductors are Bujor Hoinic and Kartum Hoinic. Stage director is Zeynep Sunal Ongün. In the Giselle character, the three magnificent ballerinas of Ankara Ballet will be on the stage, alternating between Özge Başaran, Mine İzgi and Sultan Hinge.

Zorba, Harem, Frida, Bach / Alaturka Danzon and Nutcracker ballets will be on stage in Ankara opera house in this season.

Tickets are on sale online at 10:00 a.m. a month earlier.

After the box office sales, there is not much room left in the internet ticket. On the day of the sale the tickets were consumed within the same day. If you go to Opera-Ballet in the morning, you can get your ticket directly from 09-10 in the morning with cash money or credit card.

This article is written for "Odtu Alumni Bulletin". Ankara, 20 March 2018

East Med Offshore waters are warming

Eastern Mediterranean Offshore Waters are warming- OpEd

Relative optimism on Eastern Mediterranean offshore gas explorations may soon face a nasty hard fact. First let’s see the latest offshore reserve figures. New figures are emerging every day about the East Med offshore natural gas reserves. Therefore we advise you to be cautious about the numbers we will give here. There are 320 bcm (billion cubic meter) in the Tamar region of Israel, 600 bcm in the Leviathan region, 130 bcm in the Southern Cyprus Aphrodite region, and an estimated 850 bcm natural gas reserves in the Egyptian Zohr region. Companies BP, ENI, Exxon, Total are working in the East Mediterranean region. Let’s keep in mind that annual Turkish import of natural gas is around 50bcm in recent years.

Turkish Naval Forces war ships, prevented drilling vessel of Italian oil company ENI, from reaching the controversial Cypriot offshore area. There was a pre-announced Turkish military maneuver in the area. Ankara showed its hard attitude towards the conflict with this intervention. Ankara states that the offshore reserves also belong to the Turkish part of the island, and want a fair share of natural gas resources.

Cyprus’s environment offshore region, is now the second area of conflict between NATO members. First conflict is in the Northern Syria. There is no war between NATO countries. This is not allowed. But they can always harass each other, dog fights are normal.

On the other hand, geographically, due to proximity to the mainland, easy logistical support, the overwhelming dominance of the naval and air forces of Turkish armed forces is unquestionable.

Ankara’s regional political and administrative anticipations no longer depend only on perceived threats, but also on energy reserves.

Since last week launched around Cyprus against gas exploration joint venture of French Total- Italian ENI, Turkey has stepped up military activities in the region.

The Egyptian-Turkish dispute continues on the other side of the Eastern Mediterranean region. Cairo put its weight on the side of Nicosia because of the Turkish statements of the Muslim Brotherhood and military activities that began in Syria and on the Horn of Africa. The Egyptian Foreign Minister said that not only the Cyprus offshore gas exploration projects, but the maritime trade agreement with the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Cyprus, 2003, applies to all.

In 2003, Cairo and Nicosia signed an agreement to set up an EEZ in the Eastern Mediterranean for natural gas exploration and production at nearby offshore sea regions. There is not yet an EEZ map agreed on Eastern Mediterranean countries. Every country takes care of their own interests and does not refrain from taking tough military measures to implement them.

Ankara opposes these formations because the Turkish Cypriots demanded legal rights and fair sharing over marine resources. Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs regarded the Cairo- Nicosia EEZ agreement as “null and void”.

Cairo warned neighboring countries not to violate Egypt’s sovereign rights. South Cyprus and Egypt are supported by the European Union. Turkey began blocking against other sea areas to the Greek and Greek Cypriot ships. Ankara warned that international companies could lose Ankara’s friendship. Cairo aims to further expand its overseas production in the Zohr gas field and the latest BP offshore area. Cairo is implementing plans to become an big LNG exporter in the East Med region by 2020.

These plans will be combined with the Cyprus-Israel offshore gas production partnership.

Israel-Turkey relations were severed at the end. Israel’s plans on the old pipeline to export gas to Turkey. The US and EU first encouraged this partnership. The current stance in Ankara does not allow these joint plans anymore.

Eastern Mediterranean easiest and cheapest transit route to European markets is passing over Turkish mainland soon after production of offshore gas. Other alternatives seem to be more expensive, long-term, hard tricky solutions.

One way of making Israeli gas commercially attractive is export co-operation with Egypt. Ankara’s strategic preferences now seem to consolidate Egyptian-Israeli ties. South Cyprus, the EU member, is considered the gateway to Europe and therefore they have of strategic importance. With the possibility of re-opening and possibly expanding Egypt’s existing LNG liquefaction schemes, a new Triple Coalition for offshore gas production may be established.

Fair Share demand not just from Turkey – Nearby countries Lebanon and Syria also ask to have their share.

Israeli navy is expanded forces to protect gas projects and shipping lines. An increasing foreign threat in Lebanon will only give more emphasis to Israel. The expansion of the Israeli navy will not only be threats to the north, but also the threats to the Palestinian extremist Hamas movement overseas projects.

When we look at the facts in the region, there is a possible hot war. “Eastern Mediterranean” gas futures will get harmed.

Increasing insecurity in the region or possible war does not only threaten Israel or Lebanon, but it also spreads to other countries.

In the big picture, gas operations are not the only threat.Threats and conflicts at sea can also damage other oil transports. Offshore region may face complete military conflict involving Israel-Cyprus-Lebanon area, from Ceyhan (Turkey) to block incoming oil transit lines.

At the same time, in a direct conflict between Cyprus and Turkey, will also direct transit routes through the Strait threatening Greeks.

Both can threaten the transportation volume between 1.6 million bpd (BTC pipeline) and 2.9 million bpd (Bosphorus).

There is not much that the US and Europe can do for now.

Without rational fair share of natural gas reserves between nearby countries, a permanent solution is not possible to accept in the Eastern Mediterranean. Ankara March 6, 2018

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Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.

This article is written for "EurasiaReview" web site release.

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