Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Hard Times for Donald Trump Administration

Donald Trump would be the president since some delayed decisions must be taken urgently in the US market.
That was our expectation earlier.
Then Donald Trump, a successful, wealthy business man has been chosen as the President. deliciously, visually appealing president who would take these tough decisions without thinking too much.
Donald Trump sworn on January 20, 2017, he then officially became President of the United States, followed by a ceremony at White House. He then suspended the following trade agreements.
TTIP, Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership
TPP, Trans Pacific Partnership (trade agreement with Japan, China, Australia and other Pacific countries).
NAFTA to renegotiate with North America, namely Mexico Canada.
Thereafter, China, Japan, the European Union exports to the United States, 35% customs tax would be imposed at the US entrance,
A physical wall will be constructed so that illegal immigrants from the Mexican border can not cross. Unregistered  5-6 million illegal foreigners will be deported, Muslims will be registered, and will be monitored for their probable illegal activities if any.  every  foreign activity will be closely inspected.
Syrians refugees will be sent back.
Nationals of Iraq, İran, Libya, Somalia, Syria and Yemen will not enter USA either as refugees or as tourists.
For Citizens of Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, such ban is not in question. If a country does not want to take refugees or immigrants, nobody can enforce it.
The president's job is very hard in the USA. Every decision must be approved by the House of Representatives, the Senate and even the Supreme Court if necessary.
The order for refugees by the President was dismissed by a federal judge on a disrupted decision, appealed to the decision. 
Donald Trump used the term "so-called" definition for the judge, the word stuck to himself, and the opponents began to call Trump as "the so-called President."
In the White House website, environmental pages have been removed. that is to say, the public control is being reduced in environmental issues, "Invest in fossil fired fuel based thermal power plants, and you can pollute the environment as you want,"
That means investors may continue their construction activities in Keystone XL, Dakota Access gas Pipeline.
The first day Trump met with rich businessmen, his talk was broadcast on TV.
Trump said he would increase employment within the United States. 
Anyhow employment is already very good, 
unemployment is at the lowest level in recent years, at 5%, 
Who will replace to the simple workmanship of the Chinese people? do you need?
The power in the hands of the US president is very small. The American voter chooses the sheriff in his own town or province, or the city he lives in, he elects the local the judge, local public prosecutor, the mayor, and the chief educator. Intra-state governance is managed locally, not from Washington. Administration is fully decentralized in the USA.
What will happen to the other economies when the US starts to raise the Fed's interest rates? Donald Trump has very little power on Federal Reserve on money issues. 
Trump seems to consume all the political gunpowder on the first day. 
The more gunpowder for future will not be available nearby. 
Moreover Trump administration broke up with media organizations. 
The American and world economies are not only made up of factories. 
Donald Trump's TV Show, real estate, hotel, concrete and cement-oriented head is unable  to perceive further developments"
Donald Trump is taking steps to make them look cute just because he gets votes from his uneducated lower middle class citizens.
You can not keep his people voting for Donald Trump in a factory that runs in a two-hour similar Chinese practice. 
All people who have a fair idea without sound knowledge. 
The poorly educated poor majority, who are finally tricked into cheating money, will be US voters in the end, but the time will be too late.
Trump says he will be going to put 35% tax on Chinese property. 
Aren't the Chinese free to reciprocate?
They can put 40% tax on imported American goods. 
Chinese investors have US Treasury bills worth US $ 2 trillion. 
They have started to dispose them already.
The best selling car in China is US production GM. 
Chinese  also put in extra tax for the GM brand. 
Who will loose in this case? 
The history of the automobile workers' union of joint  the US and Canada is more than 100 years old. 
Even the authorized workers' union is the only one between the two countries.
If we cancel NAFTA, the first to sink are automobile manufacturing facilities in the US.
Because the US factories are buying engines from Canada, what will you put in place?
The Donald Trump team is very much a novice in politics, except for the former generals who are appointed for national security and defense. 
Newly appointed civilians do not know politics, diplomacy, public administration, 
They do not have public experience. 
They are Unconventional  individuals in the United States. 
They may be billionaires, but these newcomer politicians are still very young.
They got good money in the market, they have good luck.
They benefit from the system's gaps, but they are not the well-known ones. It was very clear that they were very novices, and that they were going to the language of the USA media for the first time.
The assigned civilizations are stepped one by one. 
Trump was not authorized. 
The racist hate speech advocating white supremacy is under serious pressure.
The sculptures of the soldiers of the southern commanders are disappeared.
What if Trump trade practices are imitated by other countries?
Trump says, "America first." 
The extreme right-wing parties of Europe may say the same motto. 
"Germany first", "France first", "Netherlands first", "Austria first".
Donald Trump's decisions, their priorities are very important for the world.
We do not know how accurate the decisions are for US, but there may be serious similar applications in our geography.
We do not share the same political views with Donald Trump,
but we have been saying some similar things for years. 
Domestic design, domestic engineering, domestic contracting, domestic manufacturing, local assembly all are required to be done in energy equipment design and supply, especially thermal power plant construction. 
The construction of thermal power plants is not so difficult, 
our domestic companies have done in the past, now they can do it again.
If we do not implement it, then we can not close our industrial trade imbalance with China, Far East or other cheaper eastern European products.
Last year Turkey imported 23 billion US dollars from China and sold them 2 billion US dollars worth of goods. There is no such great imbalance in bilateral trade relations.
Turkey is  very dependent on the US for defense. We receive US $ 2.0-2.5 billion of weapons and ammunition each year from the United States.
Last year, US arms ammunition sales have been pending unofficially.
We export US $ 8 billion in 2016 with US imports of US $ 9 billion.
Donald Trump and his team need to get a good look at their thinking.
Commercial domestic market protection ideas should be seriously considered. No matter what political will it is, Trump's decisions need to be taken seriously. It is not just growth we observe in the country's economy by building residence hotels, by performing excavation of cement piles of simple worked jobs.

In any democratic country, governing political authority should give prosperity, wealth, peace and happiness to the voters in order to be reelected for sure.

Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.

Ankara, 22 August 2017
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