Saturday, July 24, 2010

Mid-2010 Forecast on Turkish Energy markets

Dear Colleagues
We need to make periodical forecasts for our future expectations, hence future is shaped / created by expectations as always.
After the July 2011 general elections, the ruling party may stay in power or loose the majority in the parliament, and the new coalition may get the ruling power. These are given in local public polls as advised but in any case we need to make predictions upfront, and get our positions and make our decisions accordingly.
In case the existing ruling party gets the majority once again, then we have no more new changes in energy policy, and all will be same.
If the opposition parties get control the majority in the parliament, then we may expect certain power sharing. We may expect more negotiation on decision making process.
The most important key issue is the power share in energy markets.
Ultra right nationalist party is more likely to get the post in Energy. However leftist party may have similar or parallel initiatives in the end.
We may expect that privatisation issues will continue, rehabilitation/ upgrading will be expected by the new private owners after privatisation with certain grace period for environmental upgrading investments.
Nuclear power plant law will be renewed, and modified.
It is expected that EMRA will be restructured, and she will have more power and control on licensing.
EIA approvals will be better scrutinised, and the permission may be renewed. Ministry of environment will have more concern over environmental protection.
Risk premium on new investments will get higher, and project financing will be costlier.
NGOs will have more say on energy and environmental projection, which would be a positive impact as compared to existing vulgar/ rouge attitude of the public administrations.
Are these good or bad?? It depends on where you are, how and whom you work.
As you know, we advocate local involvement, i.e. local engineering, local fabrication, local employment at all phases of power plant investments. These issues will get priority.
Conflict resolution and group decision making will take place at all levels in government. However there is a high risk of increased corruption.
Our EU application efforts will be on hold. Our business relations with the MiddleEast will be on hold. That is less hot money influx from Gulf financing institutes.
We shall have more relaxed attitude towards Cyprus conflict and genocide intimidation, since there will be no expectation of EU participation, nor any conflict with Obama administration
Power structure in the business community will be replaced. Existing favouritisms will never be demolished but be replaced.
Free entry of Foreign Labor and foreign engineers will be stopped. Local engineering and more local employment will be encouraged.
We foresee restructuring in all public posts, leading to delays in public decisions, more public spending, loose or relaxed budget control, more negotiation on critical economic decisions, so in the end we expect higher budget deficit, and higher inflation. Get ready, be prepared.
We are able to predict this much, and will be too pleased to receive your comments/ contributions
With best regards
Haluk Direskeneli, Ankara based Energy Analyst
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