A personal evaluation of local Energy Market

Dear Colleagues

Those of 1968 generation will recall that there was a “Nuclear” division in the METU Mechanical Engineering Department along with “Heat” and “Mechanics”

We had many graduates with BSc and MSc degrees from “Nuclear” division all confident that they could design, build and operate a Nuclear Power plant

We had also students from other Middle East Countries who were studying together with their Turkish colleagues, even from Iran

Then they completed their university studies, got their diplomas and returned to their countries, and work for their careers

In Turkey Turkish METU graduates started to work in Turkish Electricity Authority, Nuclear Energy Department

Then years passed, Turkey could not design/build/ Operate her own Nuclear Power plant during all these years

Time passed by with no serious development in Turkish Nuclear energy

We had serious corruption news in Turkish Nuclear tenders

Then IMF asked the government to stop the work on Nuclear Energy tenders since that activity put high financial risk on Turkish Treasury. Work ceased in early 2000s

Nuclear Energy Division of Turkish Electricity Authority was also closed and its mostly METU Graduate engineers were either transferred to other departments or asked to leave the establishment

We have almost 38 years passed after 1968 years

What do you think of those METU ME Nuclear graduates since 1968s years??

Some of Turkish graduates formed their own private companies in Energy sector.

Most of them were very successful in their own private business

They constructed high capacity coal mine transfer systems in Thermal power plants

They completed mechanical installation works in Thermal power plants

They completed site installation activities abroad especially in the Middle East Countries as well as in the Central Asia,

They formed their own fabrication plants in order to make fabrication of steel structures for Industrial installations

They worked in other public enterprises, in the Ministries

They were promoted to high prestigious public posts

Some of them went to abroad to earn their life and pursue their own careers

Some of them worked in Nuclear Power Plants in those foreign lands

They occupied high level posts in USA, Canada, Switzerland Nuclear Power industries

It is not untrue to say that some of Iranian METU graduates worked in their own Nuclear Industry in Iran, and today Iranian METU graduates cover the decision-making posts of top management level in Iranian Nuclear business. They construct, design and operate the Nuclear power plants in Iran.

Whatever you say on Iranian business environment, you may critizise their products, their outputs, their political environment or else.

But you should evaluate carefully the latest point they have reached in their own Nuclear technology

Today Iranian Nuclear technology is somewhat the product of METU Mechanical Engineering department Nuclear division in 1968s.

We wish we could have well utilized that great human resource for the Local Turkish Nuclear Power plant to solve our prevailing energy problem.

We shall enter into a serious energy crisis in 2008-2009.

That is foreseen by all parties.

Our big players of our Private enterprise have foreseen the bottleneck

They had meetings one after another.

Our energy market is not so easy, not so profitable.

It is a very tough sector.

It is a very difficult market.

Public enterprises cannot make new investments, they have no resources to allocate, no money to spend.

Nobody wants to make new investments,
just because our Energy market lost its reliability in the financial markets.

International investors do not want to make investment, they do not want to finance any project, they foresee high risk.

For that high risk, they calculate a high interest rate.

Our energy markets/ projects are not “bankable”

The documents created to finance the new energy projects are not “bankable documents”

They are not real/ internationally recognized “bankable documents”

Nobody shows any interest into new energy projects

If you ask any international reputable company to prepare any proposal for your new energy project, you cannot get their response

The prefeasibility / feasibility documents are not in international standards

Public tenders are not bankable, they ask impossible clauses, these are not not bankable

The feasibility documents prepared in the local market for billion US Dollar projects are at low quality, they are not acceptable if not miserable

Today go to Foster Wheeler or Lurgi, or Alstom

And ask a proposal for any of your energy projects

Go and ask Mitsubishi or Hitachi

Or any Swiss/ Canadian energy company

See if they respond

I don’t think so

You are at the mercy of Indian- China- Korean companies

Newcomers in the energy business, with low prices with their own technology

Turkey could not create her own technology in energy business

Although we had huge human engineering power in 1968s

Turkish companies could not create high value added energy products in energy business for her own local market to generate cheap energy

Not only Nuclear technology

We even cannot construct our own Thermal power plant, not even simple coal firing plants

These are a number of steel tube fabrication not a space shuttle

Our own local private companies cannot cover scope other than “civil works, foundations, and site installation”, at so low profit margins, with low value added levels, based on unqualified or semi-qualified labor work

Nobody wants to leave that unqualified or semi-qualified labor work to foreign companies, local workers resist to foreign participation as in Kazakhstan

We still hope that we can complete huge works with so little early preparation

We still think that we can handle/ create “bankable feasibility documents” with in-house excel sheets

I occupied seats at the foreign side of the negotiation table many times in the past

Foreign side comes to the negotiation table well prepared with all calculated risks of the subject project, they make serious “due diligence” works

They evaluate the project risks carefully

They receive your "In-house prepared bankable feasibility document"

They will advise that they will carefully review the document

That review will not be finalized

And you wait for the final decision in years and years

Turkish people should know that they should create their own technology

They should support their own human resources, more funds to be allocated to R&D, more money for young engineering graduates, more software and hardware supplies

Believe me that our your engineering graduates are no different than those of their counterparts in the foreign companies

In some of foreign engineering companies , there are even high level managers / directors with Turkish origin

We shall have a very important Panel in METU Visnelik Ankara Alumni Association on

"Current Energy Issues of Turkey in 2006"
on 7th December 2006 Thursday at 1900 hours

in Alumni premises main Conference room.

Speakers are key professionals from Public and Private enterprises as well as reputable academicians of METU.

Panel is open for all interested parties and it is free-of charge.

Tea- coffee services are available and free-of-charge.

We have a big parking lot, free-of-charge

We invite you all

Thank you and best regards

Panel on Current Energy issues of Turkey 2006

METU Visnelik Ankara Alumni Association announces the Panel on "Current Energy Issues of Turkey in 2006" on 7th December 2006 Thursday at 1900 hours in Ankara Alumni premises main Conference room. Speakers are key professionals from Public and Private enterprises as well as reputable academicians of METU. Panel is open for all interested parties and it is free-of charge. For further information and/or clarification, please feel free to ask.

EU Progress Report on Turkish Energy Sector

Here are some comments and thoughts after a brief review of the latest EU Progress Report on Turkish energy sector developments

"Some progress has been achieved in the field of energy," said the progress report on Turkey which was released by the European Commission on November 8th, 2006 last week. "So progress" is to be noted.

It noted, "preparations are fairly advanced with regard to security of supply. Turkey's oil stocks, however, are not calculated according to EU methodology. The Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan oil pipeline became operational. " So "securty is the most important key issue at EU side.

"Some progress has been made as regards the internal energy market. The privatisation process of distribution assets has started for three regions. Implementing regulations were enacted on electricity demand forecasting, and cross-border electricity trade. The threshold for eligible consumers has been reduced to 6 GWh. A new amendment, however, allows cross-subsidies and vertical integration. High
electricity losses, including theft, persisted," the report said. These are well known facts of our local market, so necessary measures are to be taken.

"Two six-hour blackouts occurred in July affecting 13 cities, mainly due to generation capacity constraints. Unchanged electricity tariffs in the context of rising gas import prices may in the short term result in real capacity reductions," it stated. We understand that they watch our environment very carefully.

The report indicated, "Turkey is not yet a member of the Union for the Coordination of Transmission of Energy. Turkey has not signed the Energy Community Treaty establishing a regional energy market in southeast Europe."

That is for "EU safety" on energy transmission

It said, "regarding the internal gas market, no new implementing legislation has been issued. Some liberalisation took place: in-city natural gas distribution tenders were undertaken for 54 cities. The market share of any importer or wholesaler is limited by law to 20%.

The state-owned company BOTAS has not transferred existing contracts and maintains its monopolistic position. Overall alignment in these areas is well underway, however implementation is lagging behind."

The report indicated, "concerning state aids to the coal industry, no progress can be reported. Alignment in this area is low." They are not well informed on that issue.

It noted, "some progress has been made on renewable energy sources. " This is a very loose statement. This statement is given by Green MPs of EU.

"However, Turkey has not set itself an ambitious target yet for their increase. An implementing regulation on the guarantee of origin has been issued. Turkey is partially aligned in this area."

"Regarding nuclear energy, Turkey's capacity to fulfil acquis requirements is fairly advanced. Turkey has no nuclear power generation plants yet, but has announced plans to promote the construction of a capacity of 5000 MW by 2020. The independence of
the Turkish Atomic Energy Authority (TAEK) needs attention. Supervisory responsibilities are not separated from research and the promotion of nuclear energy. Turkey has reached a considerable degree of alignment as regards nuclear safety and radiation protection," it stated.

"No new implementing regulation has been enacted. Substantial upgrading of existing facilities will be needed, including radioactive waste management and storage facilities. Turkey has not acceded to the Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and on the Safety of Radioactive Waste Management, to which Euratom became a contracting party in January 2006," the report indicated.

"Some progress has been achieved in the field of energy. Overall, alignment is uneven. A framework law for energy efficiency remains to be developed," the report added. That is to say "we closely watch the developments of any activity in the energy sector of Turkey, since it is vital tour energy safety at our end"

That sensivity is carefully noted at our end. This is for records

CAYIRHAN TPP- FGD 1992 Site Report

Dear Colleagues

I hereby would like to present a past site report on opening ceremony of Cayirhan Power Plant, as follows.

Flue Gas Desulphurization

Friday, 4th September 1992, was the official opening of the Cayirhan Power Station
Flue Gas Desulphurization Plant, the first such installation in Turkey, the first of
many. This was a big event, with speeches by the Minister of Energy; the General Manager of TEK; Chairman of Gama; and the leader of the consortium, the GM of Kloeckner of Germany. Radio, TV, and the press covered the event.

We should not underemphasize the importance of TEK's FGD program in Turkey. It needs to be in full implementation for Turkey to meet European emission standards, which is one of the requirements for full membership of the EC, a clear and priority goal of the Turkish government.

TURKISH ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY
A New Step in Clean Energy Production
2x150 MWe
Cayirhan Thermal Power Station
Flue Gas Desulphurization System

Love for one's country can be measured by one's service to it.
Kemal Ataturk

INTRODUCTION

To meet our country's increasing energy demands, the Authority's power plants fire poor quality lignite of low calorific value, with high ash and high moisture content, which cannot be used elsewhere. This operation introduces potential environmental hazards which have to be avoided. Under the current strict environmental regulations the Authority considers this their major problem to solve © avoiding environmental pollution while producing electricity from economic fuel sources. Due to the high sulphur content of the fuel from its mine, Cayirhan Power Plant was selected for the installation of the first Flue Gas Desulphurization System.

Since this installation is an integral part of a utility plant, and is the first of its kind in Turkey to apply desulphurization techniques to flue gases, the
Cayirhan FGD system is regarded by the Authority as a major step in the application of these measures for the control of environmental pollution.

The successful initiation of this FGD plant emphasises the validity of this solution of a technological process applied for a cleaner environment. Even the additional costs of such a solution still allow for economical energy production.

Starting at this point, the Authority makes a long-term commitment to install
similar FGD systems in all other utility power stations.

GENERAL INFORMATION ON THE PROJECT

This FGD facility, integrated with the 2x150 Mw capacity Cayirhan Power
Plant, is 120 Km from Ankara city centre, and is located in Nallihan county near to Cayirhan town. The Cayirhan Power Station supplies 1,800,000,000 Kw-Hr. of electric power into the national grid each year, while utilizing poor-quality lignites from local mines.

The proximate analysis of the lignite which is supplied to Cayirhan Power
Station is as follows:

Average Lignite Proximate Analysis

Lower Heating Value 2,800 KCal/Kg
Ash 41.3 % (dry basis)
Moisture 27.5 %
Total Sulphur 4.65 %
Combustible Sulphur 4.15 %

Since the combustible sulphur is quite high at 4.15%, under full load of the two units of the power plant, 30 tons of SO2 is calculated to be discharged to the local environment each hour. This is the prime reason for building the FGD plant.

The contract for the FGD plant was signed on 3rd July 1987. It is on a turnkey basis, with a consortium formed by Bischoff-Kloecner- Lentjes of Germany, and Gama of Turkey. The contractual lump sum price was 71,638,715 Dm, plus 4,387,482,000TL. By having the credit agreements to cover the project effective as of January 1988, the subject installation has been in operation since November 1991 in parallel with the utility plant.

The financing of the FGD plant is 100% from foreign sources, which also includes coverage for the local portion.

This site report is written as a record of past activities.

Design Software targets coal-fired power plant developers

News Story
Design Software targets coal-fired power plant developers.

November 2, 2006 - Including integrated combined-cycle gasification (IGCC) enhancements for GT PRO and GT MASTER software programs, Thermoflow Suite 16 features hardware-based models for gasifier vessels and raw syngas coolers, and additional steam sources for interconnecting raw syngas coolers to power island. When combined with company's Plant Engineering and Construction Estimator program, it enables conceptual engineering and cost estimation for all major components of IGCC plant.

http://news.thomasnet.com/fullstory/801038/2585

Press Release
Release date: October 12, 2006

Thermoflow Adds IGCC Features to its Design Software for Coal-Fired Plants

Company Responding to Industry Needs

SUDBURY, MASS. - October 12, 2006 - Responding to the growing energy industry interest in integrated combined-cycle gasification (IGCC), or cleaner coal, technology, Thermoflow Inc. continues to expand its heat balance design software offerings for developers of coal-fired power plants.

The company recently released Thermoflow Suite 16 (TFLOW 16), which includes significant IGCC enhancements for its well-proven GT PRO and GT MASTER software programs.

TFLOW 16 features new hardware-based models for gasifier vessels and raw syngas coolers, and includes additional steam sources for interconnecting raw syngas coolers to the power island. New IGCC output graphics have been added to better illustrate flows between the gasification plant and the power island.

When combined with Thermoflow's Plant Engineering and Construction Estimator (PEACE) program, TFLOW 16 enables conceptual engineering and cost estimation for all major components of an IGCC plant, taking into consideration coal properties and all principal design variables.

In addition to the new IGCC capabilities, Thermoflow recently added a pulverizer capacity model to its STEAM PRO and STEAM MASTER products, to estimate coal handling capacity as a function of fuel hardness, desired fineness and moisture content.

"Many in the industry have long recognized Thermoflow as a leading developer of software for designing and modeling combined-cycle power plants burning gas or oil," said Dr. Maher Elmasri, president of Thermoflow. "In addition, our STEAM PRO program has assisted developers of conventional coal-fired plants since 1991.

"Today, we see great promise in IGCC as a way to use coal, one of the world's most abundant resources, in an environmentally responsible manner. To help our customers take full advantage of this technology, we continue to expand and add powerful new features to our software programs for designing coal-fired plants."

In an IGCC system, coal is converted into a cleaner burning fuel, which then is burned in a gas turbine combined-cycle system to generate electricity. This process significantly reduces the emissions of sulfur dioxides, nitrogen oxides, mercury and particulate matter associated with traditional coal plants.

Since 1987, Thermoflow has been a leading developer of thermal engineering software for the power and cogeneration industries. Thermoflow's first product, GT PRO, has become the world's most popular program for designing gas turbine-based power plants. By the end of 2005, about 1,750 users at 900 sites in more than 50 countries were using GT PRO.

In addition to GT PRO, Thermoflow's suite of products includes GT MASTER for simulation analysis of gas turbine-based plants; STEAM PRO and STEAM MASTER for conventional steam power plants; and PEACE for preliminary engineering and cost estimation. Along with these application-specific products, Thermoflow also offers THERMOFLEX, a fully flexible design system.

All of Thermoflow's products also are packaged for on-line or off-line simulation, monitoring and optimization of operating power and cogeneration plants. Thermoflow also offers training courses and consulting services.

Thermoflow is based in Sudbury, Mass. with a sister company, Thermoflow Ltd., located in Allendorf, Germany, and has sales and support representatives in several other countries.

For additional information, please contact:
Dr. Maher Elmasri
Thermoflow, Inc.
(978) 579-7999
info@thermoflow.com