A personal evaluation of local Energy Market
Dear Colleagues
Those of 1968 generation will recall that there was a “Nuclear” division in the METU Mechanical Engineering Department along with “Heat” and “Mechanics”
We had many graduates with BSc and MSc degrees from “Nuclear” division all confident that they could design, build and operate a Nuclear Power plant
We had also students from other Middle East Countries who were studying together with their Turkish colleagues, even from Iran
Then they completed their university studies, got their diplomas and returned to their countries, and work for their careers
In Turkey Turkish METU graduates started to work in Turkish Electricity Authority, Nuclear Energy Department
Then years passed, Turkey could not design/build/ Operate her own Nuclear Power plant during all these years
Time passed by with no serious development in Turkish Nuclear energy
We had serious corruption news in Turkish Nuclear tenders
Then IMF asked the government to stop the work on Nuclear Energy tenders since that activity put high financial risk on Turkish Treasury. Work ceased in early 2000s
Nuclear Energy Division of Turkish Electricity Authority was also closed and its mostly METU Graduate engineers were either transferred to other departments or asked to leave the establishment
We have almost 38 years passed after 1968 years
What do you think of those METU ME Nuclear graduates since 1968s years??
Some of Turkish graduates formed their own private companies in Energy sector.
Most of them were very successful in their own private business
They constructed high capacity coal mine transfer systems in Thermal power plants
They completed mechanical installation works in Thermal power plants
They completed site installation activities abroad especially in the Middle East Countries as well as in the Central Asia,
They formed their own fabrication plants in order to make fabrication of steel structures for Industrial installations
They worked in other public enterprises, in the Ministries
They were promoted to high prestigious public posts
Some of them went to abroad to earn their life and pursue their own careers
Some of them worked in Nuclear Power Plants in those foreign lands
They occupied high level posts in USA, Canada, Switzerland Nuclear Power industries
It is not untrue to say that some of Iranian METU graduates worked in their own Nuclear Industry in Iran, and today Iranian METU graduates cover the decision-making posts of top management level in Iranian Nuclear business. They construct, design and operate the Nuclear power plants in Iran.
Whatever you say on Iranian business environment, you may critizise their products, their outputs, their political environment or else.
But you should evaluate carefully the latest point they have reached in their own Nuclear technology
Today Iranian Nuclear technology is somewhat the product of METU Mechanical Engineering department Nuclear division in 1968s.
We wish we could have well utilized that great human resource for the Local Turkish Nuclear Power plant to solve our prevailing energy problem.
We shall enter into a serious energy crisis in 2008-2009.
That is foreseen by all parties.
Our big players of our Private enterprise have foreseen the bottleneck
They had meetings one after another.
Our energy market is not so easy, not so profitable.
It is a very tough sector.
It is a very difficult market.
Public enterprises cannot make new investments, they have no resources to allocate, no money to spend.
Nobody wants to make new investments,
just because our Energy market lost its reliability in the financial markets.
International investors do not want to make investment, they do not want to finance any project, they foresee high risk.
For that high risk, they calculate a high interest rate.
Our energy markets/ projects are not “bankable”
The documents created to finance the new energy projects are not “bankable documents”
They are not real/ internationally recognized “bankable documents”
Nobody shows any interest into new energy projects
If you ask any international reputable company to prepare any proposal for your new energy project, you cannot get their response
The prefeasibility / feasibility documents are not in international standards
Public tenders are not bankable, they ask impossible clauses, these are not not bankable
The feasibility documents prepared in the local market for billion US Dollar projects are at low quality, they are not acceptable if not miserable
Today go to Foster Wheeler or Lurgi, or Alstom
And ask a proposal for any of your energy projects
Go and ask Mitsubishi or Hitachi
Or any Swiss/ Canadian energy company
See if they respond
I don’t think so
You are at the mercy of Indian- China- Korean companies
Newcomers in the energy business, with low prices with their own technology
Turkey could not create her own technology in energy business
Although we had huge human engineering power in 1968s
Turkish companies could not create high value added energy products in energy business for her own local market to generate cheap energy
Not only Nuclear technology
We even cannot construct our own Thermal power plant, not even simple coal firing plants
These are a number of steel tube fabrication not a space shuttle
Our own local private companies cannot cover scope other than “civil works, foundations, and site installation”, at so low profit margins, with low value added levels, based on unqualified or semi-qualified labor work
Nobody wants to leave that unqualified or semi-qualified labor work to foreign companies, local workers resist to foreign participation as in Kazakhstan
We still hope that we can complete huge works with so little early preparation
We still think that we can handle/ create “bankable feasibility documents” with in-house excel sheets
I occupied seats at the foreign side of the negotiation table many times in the past
Foreign side comes to the negotiation table well prepared with all calculated risks of the subject project, they make serious “due diligence” works
They evaluate the project risks carefully
They receive your "In-house prepared bankable feasibility document"
They will advise that they will carefully review the document
That review will not be finalized
And you wait for the final decision in years and years
Turkish people should know that they should create their own technology
They should support their own human resources, more funds to be allocated to R&D, more money for young engineering graduates, more software and hardware supplies
Believe me that our your engineering graduates are no different than those of their counterparts in the foreign companies
In some of foreign engineering companies , there are even high level managers / directors with Turkish origin
We shall have a very important Panel in METU Visnelik Ankara Alumni Association on
"Current Energy Issues of Turkey in 2006"
on 7th December 2006 Thursday at 1900 hours
in Alumni premises main Conference room.
Speakers are key professionals from Public and Private enterprises as well as reputable academicians of METU.
Panel is open for all interested parties and it is free-of charge.
Tea- coffee services are available and free-of-charge.
We have a big parking lot, free-of-charge
We invite you all
Thank you and best regards
Those of 1968 generation will recall that there was a “Nuclear” division in the METU Mechanical Engineering Department along with “Heat” and “Mechanics”
We had many graduates with BSc and MSc degrees from “Nuclear” division all confident that they could design, build and operate a Nuclear Power plant
We had also students from other Middle East Countries who were studying together with their Turkish colleagues, even from Iran
Then they completed their university studies, got their diplomas and returned to their countries, and work for their careers
In Turkey Turkish METU graduates started to work in Turkish Electricity Authority, Nuclear Energy Department
Then years passed, Turkey could not design/build/ Operate her own Nuclear Power plant during all these years
Time passed by with no serious development in Turkish Nuclear energy
We had serious corruption news in Turkish Nuclear tenders
Then IMF asked the government to stop the work on Nuclear Energy tenders since that activity put high financial risk on Turkish Treasury. Work ceased in early 2000s
Nuclear Energy Division of Turkish Electricity Authority was also closed and its mostly METU Graduate engineers were either transferred to other departments or asked to leave the establishment
We have almost 38 years passed after 1968 years
What do you think of those METU ME Nuclear graduates since 1968s years??
Some of Turkish graduates formed their own private companies in Energy sector.
Most of them were very successful in their own private business
They constructed high capacity coal mine transfer systems in Thermal power plants
They completed mechanical installation works in Thermal power plants
They completed site installation activities abroad especially in the Middle East Countries as well as in the Central Asia,
They formed their own fabrication plants in order to make fabrication of steel structures for Industrial installations
They worked in other public enterprises, in the Ministries
They were promoted to high prestigious public posts
Some of them went to abroad to earn their life and pursue their own careers
Some of them worked in Nuclear Power Plants in those foreign lands
They occupied high level posts in USA, Canada, Switzerland Nuclear Power industries
It is not untrue to say that some of Iranian METU graduates worked in their own Nuclear Industry in Iran, and today Iranian METU graduates cover the decision-making posts of top management level in Iranian Nuclear business. They construct, design and operate the Nuclear power plants in Iran.
Whatever you say on Iranian business environment, you may critizise their products, their outputs, their political environment or else.
But you should evaluate carefully the latest point they have reached in their own Nuclear technology
Today Iranian Nuclear technology is somewhat the product of METU Mechanical Engineering department Nuclear division in 1968s.
We wish we could have well utilized that great human resource for the Local Turkish Nuclear Power plant to solve our prevailing energy problem.
We shall enter into a serious energy crisis in 2008-2009.
That is foreseen by all parties.
Our big players of our Private enterprise have foreseen the bottleneck
They had meetings one after another.
Our energy market is not so easy, not so profitable.
It is a very tough sector.
It is a very difficult market.
Public enterprises cannot make new investments, they have no resources to allocate, no money to spend.
Nobody wants to make new investments,
just because our Energy market lost its reliability in the financial markets.
International investors do not want to make investment, they do not want to finance any project, they foresee high risk.
For that high risk, they calculate a high interest rate.
Our energy markets/ projects are not “bankable”
The documents created to finance the new energy projects are not “bankable documents”
They are not real/ internationally recognized “bankable documents”
Nobody shows any interest into new energy projects
If you ask any international reputable company to prepare any proposal for your new energy project, you cannot get their response
The prefeasibility / feasibility documents are not in international standards
Public tenders are not bankable, they ask impossible clauses, these are not not bankable
The feasibility documents prepared in the local market for billion US Dollar projects are at low quality, they are not acceptable if not miserable
Today go to Foster Wheeler or Lurgi, or Alstom
And ask a proposal for any of your energy projects
Go and ask Mitsubishi or Hitachi
Or any Swiss/ Canadian energy company
See if they respond
I don’t think so
You are at the mercy of Indian- China- Korean companies
Newcomers in the energy business, with low prices with their own technology
Turkey could not create her own technology in energy business
Although we had huge human engineering power in 1968s
Turkish companies could not create high value added energy products in energy business for her own local market to generate cheap energy
Not only Nuclear technology
We even cannot construct our own Thermal power plant, not even simple coal firing plants
These are a number of steel tube fabrication not a space shuttle
Our own local private companies cannot cover scope other than “civil works, foundations, and site installation”, at so low profit margins, with low value added levels, based on unqualified or semi-qualified labor work
Nobody wants to leave that unqualified or semi-qualified labor work to foreign companies, local workers resist to foreign participation as in Kazakhstan
We still hope that we can complete huge works with so little early preparation
We still think that we can handle/ create “bankable feasibility documents” with in-house excel sheets
I occupied seats at the foreign side of the negotiation table many times in the past
Foreign side comes to the negotiation table well prepared with all calculated risks of the subject project, they make serious “due diligence” works
They evaluate the project risks carefully
They receive your "In-house prepared bankable feasibility document"
They will advise that they will carefully review the document
That review will not be finalized
And you wait for the final decision in years and years
Turkish people should know that they should create their own technology
They should support their own human resources, more funds to be allocated to R&D, more money for young engineering graduates, more software and hardware supplies
Believe me that our your engineering graduates are no different than those of their counterparts in the foreign companies
In some of foreign engineering companies , there are even high level managers / directors with Turkish origin
We shall have a very important Panel in METU Visnelik Ankara Alumni Association on
"Current Energy Issues of Turkey in 2006"
on 7th December 2006 Thursday at 1900 hours
in Alumni premises main Conference room.
Speakers are key professionals from Public and Private enterprises as well as reputable academicians of METU.
Panel is open for all interested parties and it is free-of charge.
Tea- coffee services are available and free-of-charge.
We have a big parking lot, free-of-charge
We invite you all
Thank you and best regards
posted by yuvakuran at 12:36 AM
3 Comments:
Degerli Arkadaslarim
1968 kusagi degerli arkadaslarim hatirlayacaklardir
1968 kusagi demek- 1968 yilinda universitede ogrenim goren kusak demek
yani biz 72-73-74 mezunlari 1968 kusagiyiz
1968 yillarinda ODTU Makina Muhendisligi bolumunde Isi ve mekanik
ihtisas dallari yaninda bir de "Nukleer" dali vardi. Burdan cok
sayida "Nukleer" konusunda o donemim bilgileri ile ihtisas yapmis MSc
almis degerli arkadasimiz yetisti
Aralarinda OrtaDogu ulkelerinden gelenler vardi
Iran dan gelenler vardi
Sonra herkes kendi ulkesine dondu ve kariyer yapmaya basladilar
Turkiye de bu konuda yetisenler oncelikle TEK Nukleer dairesinde ise
basladilar
Aradan yillar gecti
Turkiye kendi sartlarina uygun bir makul teknolojiyi kuramadi
Is tavsadi- ihaleler yolsuzluk haberleriyle doldu
Bu kadar buyuk bir yatirim hacminin finansal riskini hazine nin
karsilayamayacagi dusuncesi ile IMF sonunda Nukleer konusunu
Hukumetin kapatmasini istedi
ve olay bitti
TEK Nukleer dairesi daha once kapatilmisti
1968 yillarindan bugune 38 yil gecmis
ODTU Makina- Nukleer bolumunu bitirenler ne yapti dersiniz??
Turkiye de bulunanlar kendi isleri kurdular
cogu cok basarili oldu
Komurlu santrallerde buyuk kapasiteli komur tasima hatlarini yaptilar
mekanik montaj isleri yaptilar
kendi farrikalarini kurdular celik konstruksiyon imalat isleri
yaptilar
kamuda baska alanlarda yukseldiler
hicbir iktidarin yerinden edemeyecegi bilgili- tecrubeli ust duzey
burokratlar oldular
bazilari yurtdisina gitti
Gittikleri ulkelerin Nukleer santrallerinde calistilar
Kanada, Isvicre- ABD de cok sayida ust duzey profesyonel kadrolari
doldurdular
En inanilmazi- ODTU Makina Nukleer bolumu mezunlari Iranli
muhendisler bugun Iran'in nukleer santrallerini yaiyor, insaa ediyor,
calistiriyor
Ne derseniz deyin- rejimini elestirebilirsiniz
Urettiklerini kalitesiz bulabilirsiniz
ancak Iran Nukleer teknolojisinin geldigi noktayi cok dikkatle
degerlendirmeniz lazim
Iran Nukleer teknolojisi ODTU Makina Nukleer bolumunun 1968 kusaginin
urunudur
keske bizde ayni kusagi 1968 kusagini akilci kullanabilseydik
2008-2009 da buyuk bir enerji sikintisina girecegiz
Ozel sektor tehlikeyi gordu
gecen hafta onun icin sapanca da toplantilar yapti
enerji piyasamiz hicte oyle 5-6 katli kaymakli kadayif degil
cok zor bir sektor
cok zor bir piyasa
kimse yatirim yapmiyor
cunku piyasa guvenilirligini yitirdi
Bizim enerji piyasamiz "bankable" degil
uretilen "bankable document" gecersiz
kimse ilgi gostermiyor
Arasaniz- isteseniz Bati firmalarindan teklif bile alamazsiniz
Hazirladiginiz "prefeasibility" on fizibilite dokumanlari ilgi
cekmekten uzak
Milyar USD yatirim icin hazirlanan "feasibility" dokumanlari zavalli
Gidin Foster Wheeler- LURGI- Alstom dan bir proje icin teklif isteyin
Mitsbishi- Hitachi den isteyin
bakalim verecekler mi????
hic sanmiyorum
Hindistan- Cin- Kore firmalarinin insafina kaldiniz
Turk firmalari kendi teknolojilerini uretemedi
Birakin Nukleeri-
basit komur yakan termik santral bile uretemedi
yerli firmalarimiz hala basit "insaat arti saha montaji" islerinde
amele kapsami goturuyorlar
Kazakistan da oldugu gibi artik kimse bu amele isleri yabanci amele
firmalarina vermiyor
Biz hala kucuk hesaplarla buyuk isleri yapabilecegimizi saniyoruz
Evde yaptigimiz basit "excel sheet" lerle buyuk "bankable
feasibility" dokumanlari urettigimizi saniyoruz
ben masanin yabanci tarafinda cok oturdum
yabanci taraf cok buyuk ciddiyet ile sizin "home made bankable
feasibility document" i alir tesekkur eder
inceleyecegini soyler
bu inceleme hic bitmez
sizde bekler durursunuz
Turkiye insani artik kendi ihtiyaci teknolojiyi kendisi uretmesi
gerektigini bilmeli
genc muhendislerine destek vermeli
onlara yazilim- donanim- maddi fon Ar&Ge fonlari vermeli
Bu isleri yabanci firmalarda yapan muhendisler bizim
muhendislerimizden farkli degil
hic degil
hatta bazilarinin basinda bizim ulkemizden yetismis Turk asilli
direktorler var
7 ARALIK 2006 persembe gunu saat 1900da ODTU Visnelik Ankara da
konferans salonunda "Turkiyenin Guncel Enerji Sorunlari" konulu
panelimiz var
Ilgilenen herkese acik
Cay- kahve ucretsiz
Otopark genis ve musait
henuz kesinlesmemis konusmaci listemiz var
Hepinizi bekleriz
Selamlar saygilar
Haluk Direskeneli
ODTU ME'73
İran'ın nükleer programını ODTÜ'lüler mi yapıyor?
1968 yıllarında Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi (ODTÜ) Makina Mühendisliği bölümünde Nükleer dalı vardı.
Buradan, çok sayıda, o dönemin nükleer bilgileriyle ihtisas yapmış değerli arkadaşımız yetişti. Aralarında Ortadoğu ülkelerinden gelenler vardı.
İran'dan gelenler de vardı.
Sonra herkes kendi ülkesine döndü ve kariyer yapmaya başladılar.
Türkiye'de bu konuda yetişenler öncelikle Türkiye Elektrik Kurumu (TEK) Nükleer dairesinde işe başladılar.
Aradan yıllar geçti.
Türkiye kendi şartlarına uygun makul bir teknoloji geliştiremedi. İş tavsadı. İhaleler yolsuzluk haberleriyle doldu. Bu kadar büyük bir yatırım hacminin finansal riskini Hazine'nin karşılayamayacağı düşüncesiyle IMF sonunda nükleer konusunu hükümetin kapatmasını istedi. TEK Nükleer Dairesi kapatıldı.
Ve olay bitti.
68 kuşağının ürünü
1968 yıllarından bugüne 38 yıl geçmiş.
ODTÜ Makina Nükleer bölümünü bitirenler ne yaptı dersiniz?
Türkiye'de bulunanlar kendi işlerini kurdular. Çoğu çok başarılı oldu.
Kömürlü santrallarda büyük kapasiteli kömür taşıma hatlarını yaptılar. Mekanik montaj işleri yaptılar. Kendi fabrikalarını kurdular.
Kamuda başka alanlarda yükseldiler.
Bazıları yurtdışına gitti. Gittikleri ülkelerin nükleer santrallarında çalıştılar. Kanada, İsviçre, ABD'de çok sayıda üst düzey profesyonel kadroları doldurdular.
En inanılmazı, ODTÜ Makina Nükleer bölümü mezunları, İranlı mühendislerle bugün İran'ın nükleer santrallarını yapıyor, çalıştırıyor.
İran'ın nükleer teknolojisi ODTÜ Makina Nükleer bölümünün, 1968 kuşağının ürünüdür. Keşke biz de aynı kuşağı akılcı kullanabilseydik.
2008-2009'da büyük bir enerji sıkıntısına gireceğiz. Özel sektör tehlikeyi gördü.
Gecen hafta onun için Sapanca'da toplantılar yaptı. Enerji piyasamız hiç de öyle 5-6 katlı kaymaklı kadayıf değil. Çok zor bir sektör. Kimse yatırım yapmıyor. Çünkü piyasa güvenilirliğini yitirdi. Enerji piyasamız bankaların finanse etme riskini göze alacağı bir sektör değil.
Türk firmaları kendi teknolojilerini üretemedi. Bırakın nükleeri, basit kömür yakan termik santral bile üretemedi. Yerli firmalarımız işlerini hâlâ basit, "inşaat artı saha montajı" amele kapsamı götürüyorlar.
Biz hâlâ küçük hesaplarla büyük işleri yapabileceğimizi sanıyoruz.
* * *
Yukarıdaki, geniş bir özetini okuduğunuz mektubu 1973 ODTÜ mezunu Haluk Direskeneli'den aldım.
Partizanlık, profesyonel kıyımı, ufuksuzluk, plansızlık, küçük düşünmek Türkiye'ye çok şeyler kaybettirdi ve kaybettirmeye devam ediyor. ODTÜ'nün 1968 nükleer mühendis kuşağı kayıp nesillerden sadece biridir.
Dünya yenilenebilir enerji ve nükleerin hâkim olacağı yeni bir dönemin eşiğinde. Bu sahalara yüz milyarlarca dolarlar yatırılacak, uygarlığın akışına yön verecek yeni buluşlar yapılacak. Biz her zaman olduğu gibi, kâh karanlıkta, kâh aydınlıkta, kıyıdan seyredeceğiz.
Metin MUNIR- Milliyet
mmunir@milliyet.com.tr
Turkish involvement in Iran nuclear program
Serhat Gozen
The news is not new, but it is rather unheard among many. On 25 November 2006, Metin Munir, a columnist from Turkish daily newspaper Milliyet has claimed in his column that Iranian nuclear program is carried out by graduates of Middle Eastern Technical University(METU) of Turkey as well as Iranian engineers.
The article titled “Does the Iranian nuclear program carried out by METU graduates” is based on a letter from a former graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department. The letter is as follows:
***
During 1968, METU Mechanical Engineering Department was having a nuclear option.
From this option, lots of graduates with the nuclear knowledge of that era have been graduated.
Among them were students from Middle East, including Iran.
Afterwards everyone returned to their originating countries and started their professional lives.
The Turkish graduates have primarily employed by Turkish Electricity Administration’s (TEK) Nuclear Department.
Many years have passed.
Turkey has failed to develop a convenient nuclear technology. Work stagnated. The bids sinked with corruption news. Because of the financial risks involved in this investment, IMF has asked the government to close the dossier. TEK’s Nuclear Department has been closed.
And the whole procedure has been halted..
Since 1968, more than 38 years have been passed.
About the graduates of METU’s Mechanical Engineering department, where do you think they are now?
The ones in Turkey have established their own businesses. Among many have been successful.
In coal based power plants, some of them have made coal belt conveyors with large capacities. Made mechanical assemblies, built their own factories.
Some of them have climbed the bureaucratic ladders.
Some has gone abroad where they work at the nuclear power plants. They occupied the high level professional cadres in the countries like Canada, Switzerland and US.
The most incredible is their cooperation with Iranian engineers to build the Iranian nuclear plants.
Iran’s nuclear technology is a product of METU’s Mechanical Nuclear department of the 1968 generation. I wish we have used that generation with more wisdom.
In 2008 or 2009 we will have a big energy crisis. Private sector has foreseen the danger.
....
Turkish industries couldn’t produce their own technologies. Setting aside nuclear, we fail to produce (the technology) basic coal burning thermal power plants. Our domestic enterprises oversees the energy projects as basic “construction plus on the site assembly”. We still mistake in the belief that we can work out big leaps with small calculations.
***
The letter is reported to be from a 1973 graduate of METU, initials H. D.
It is a fact that Turkey has failed to take advantage of generations of high quality engineers those graduated from its institutions. But the letter above is more likely to be an over exaggeration of Turkish involvement in Iranian nuclear plans.
Despite all claims, Turkey may benefit from a nuclear Iran. If Iran makes a nuclear plant, Turkey may have an experienced brain power, assuming that the content of the letter above is correct. Also a nuclear Iran against international community is advantageous for Turkey’s role in the region.
During the Khomeini era, with the rise of Iranian revolution, Turkey has sit to the throne as a reliable western ally and took the full benefit of this situation with Turgut Ozal’s policies. A nuclear revolution in Iran may give a second chance to Turkey.
The letter discussed above is reflecting a merit. If Turkey wants to build a nuclear plant, it should first consult to its own brain power. Most of those graduates are, as in the letter, have achieved important positions. Turkish state should better set aside its policies to “start from scratch, when a previous experience fails”, but should implement brave policies to built a success story on top of the lessons learned from past failures.
This commentary is from USAK's Energy Review Newsletter
http://www.turkishweekly.net/energyreview/TurkishWeekly-EnergyReview4.pdf
To subscribe email to energyreview@turkishweekly.net
Journal of Turkish Weekly http://www.turkishweekly.net
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