İsrael iran conflict

Is an Israel-Iran War Possible? These are extremely challenging times. If Israel decides to expand the conflict by striking Iranian facilities, it could spark a major crisis in the region with far-reaching consequences. Let’s explore how each actor might respond and what potential developments could arise from such a scenario: Israel Striking Iranian Facilities Israel has long viewed Iran’s nuclear program as a significant threat. In recent years, the heightened tensions have fueled speculation that Israel may plan to strike Iran’s nuclear sites. Should Israel take such a step, it would likely target Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, escalating the conflict. However, this move also carries substantial risks for Israel. Iran’s Response Iran could react swiftly and harshly to any Israeli aggression. Possible responses might include: Missile Strikes: Iran could launch direct missile and rocket attacks on Israel. Additionally, it might mobilize regional proxy forces like Hezbollah to increase rocket fire from Lebanon into Israel. Threat to Maritime Security: Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. This move would send oil prices soaring and strain the global economy. Cyberattacks: Iran may launch widespread cyberattacks on both Israel and its Western allies, aiming to disrupt critical infrastructure. Regional Proxies: Iranian-backed Shia militias in regions like Syria, Iraq, and Yemen could launch attacks targeting Israel and its allies, broadening the conflict. U.S. Involvement The United States, as Israel’s strategic ally, has consistently reaffirmed its commitment to Israel’s security. If Israel launches an attack on Iran, U.S. intervention would be highly likely: Military Support: The U.S. could provide Israel with air defense systems, military supplies, and intelligence to help defend against Iranian retaliation. Diplomatic Pressure: The U.S. might ramp up economic sanctions against Iran, increasing international pressure. However, U.S. involvement could potentially lead to direct confrontation with Iran, increasing Washington’s military presence in the Middle East. Arab Countries The response of Arab countries would be complex. Some Arab nations may indirectly support Israel’s actions, motivated by their own concerns over Iran’s influence: Saudi Arabia and Gulf States: Known for their anti-Iran stance, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE might quietly approve of any weakening of Iran. However, they may refrain from openly siding with Israel to avoid backlash from their domestic populations. Egypt and Jordan: With diplomatic ties to Israel, these countries might aim to maintain a neutral position, seeking diplomatic solutions to avoid regional escalation. Russia and China’s Stance Russia and China would navigate this crisis with different dynamics: Russia: As a key ally of Iran, Russia would oppose any Israeli strike. Given its presence in Syria, Russia might work to prevent a direct clash between Israel and Iran. Russia could also provide military support to Iran while advocating for diplomatic negotiations to stabilize the region. China: With significant energy interests in Iran, China may politically support Iran but would likely avoid direct involvement. China’s priority would be to prevent instability that could disrupt regional stability and global markets. Turkey’s Role In such a situation, Turkey should maintain a low profile and avoid unnecessary rhetoric or taking sides. Turkey’s geographic location places it in a precarious position, and maintaining its traditional neutrality would be the best course of action. A potential Israeli strike on Iran could expand the scope of conflict across the region, dragging in multiple actors and potentially transforming a regional crisis into a global one. Such an escalation would profoundly impact global energy markets, economic stability, and the regional security architecture. In the end, an Israeli attack on Iran could trigger a dangerous chain of events with worldwide repercussions.

Israel 1990

Experience of a Business Trip to Israel.. At the beginning of 1990, our Turkish-American joint venture received a request from our American partner regarding the Ashdod refinery in Israel. They sought to renovate the aging package-type steam boilers. The outdated equipment, including burners, valves, and pumps, needed updating, and a new automatic control system was to be installed. To proceed, a site visit was necessary. Our American partner instructed us to "go see the site, learn what is needed, write us a report, and then we can prepare our proposal accordingly." I was tasked with this assignment. I obtained a 10-day visa from the Istanbul consulate. At the airport, I underwent thorough questioning both on departure and return. Two different teams asked me the same questions, comparing my answers before allowing me to board the plane. After boarding, I landed at Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport. I took a taxi to the Tel Aviv Hilton Hotel, a beautiful multi-story building by the seaside. It was Saturday, or Shabbat, so there were no operations. The elevators stopped automatically on each floor, and it was forbidden to operate anything electrical. Services were unavailable, and even pressing the light switch was prohibited. Everything was prepared in advance. On Sunday, the U.S. company's representative picked me up from the hotel and took me to their office in the industrial zone to the north. They were a familiar intermediary firm representing various interests. I was briefed on the Ashdod refinery: who was involved, who I would be speaking to, the roles of each authority figure, their behaviors, and what questions to expect. We then traveled to Haifa, where we sat on a hill overlooking the port and had lunch. Along the way, we passed an important university specializing in electronics and computer science. On Monday morning, I was picked up from the hotel again. We headed south toward the Ashdod refinery. En route, we passed by the large Ashkelon thermal power plant, which has a capacity of 2x550 MWe and burns imported coal. This plant was also constructed by our American partner. Today, Israel extracts natural gas from offshore underwater fields, reducing its dependence on imported fuel. Although it still buys some imported coal for diversification, it plans to close all imported coal plants by 2025. Upon arriving at the refinery, we were taken to a conference room, where I faced a group of male and female engineers, most of whom were graduates of Israeli universities. Among them were family members who had migrated from Turkey, including Istanbul and Izmir. We exchanged a few words in Turkish. I distributed the documents I had prepared, and the discussions proceeded in English. Presenting the package steam boilers was my area of expertise, and my mental script kicked in. For an hour, I explained the boilers, equipment, rehabilitation processes, and control systems. I encouraged them to ask more questions, particularly about control and automation, where I anticipated the most challenging inquiries. However, few questions arose, possibly because they didn't want to put me on the spot. Afterward, we went to lunch, enjoying a generous business meal consisting of soup, salad, a choice of main course (chicken, fish, kosher meat), vegetables, dessert, fruit, and tea or coffee. The weather was pleasantly warm, and there was a very positive atmosphere towards the Turkish guests. The old package boilers had been manufactured by our American partner, so they were familiar to us. In the afternoon, I visited the site of the over 20-year-old boilers. They did not allow me to take photographs. I was not permitted to take notes either. They told me, "You’ve seen and visited; you can’t write here, take notes, or take photos. Just write your report based on what you remember." I couldn’t even collect business cards from the people I met, but I made sure to distribute my own generously. In the late afternoon, we held a general evaluation meeting at our representative's office. We discussed not only this project but also what we could offer to other companies on different matters. That evening, there was a significant classical music concert at the Tel Aviv concert hall. It was exactly my taste, but tickets had been purchased days in advance. Our hosts planned to attend with their spouses, so they dropped me off at the hotel around 7 PM before heading to the concert without me. At that time, Israel had a population of 5 million and a concert hall with a capacity of 3,000 seats. They had managed to build this concert hall by cutting costs. I would have been very pleased to attend if they had given me a ticket, but it didn’t happen. The next morning, I took a taxi to Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion International Airport. Again, I underwent cross-examination by two teams. The first team asked questions in English, while the second team spoke perfect Turkish. Luckily, I passed the questioning and boarded my flight. We flew to Istanbul on a Turkish Airlines flight for two hours, and upon landing, I immediately transferred to a flight to Ankara. On the way, I wrote my site visit report in English. I typed it up on a desktop computer in the office and distributed it internally. I also faxed it to the U.S. headquarters. We prepared our proposal in accordance with the request list and sent it out. Our inability to conduct direct business in Israel hindered our operations in other Middle Eastern countries. Unlike American and Canadian companies, we were restricted from working in Israel, so we could not take on the rehabilitation project directly. We passed the work to our Canadian firm. They provided the materials and equipment, while our local representative's local subcontractors handled the labor, and a supervisor came from Canada, earning $1,000 a day plus travel expenses. We received reimbursement from our American partner for the expenses of my site visit. I don’t remember the exact amount; it was probably around $10,000. What stays in my memory are the ultra-Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods with men in black suits and hats, and women soldiers walking with heavy infantry rifles during their weekend holiday. There was heavy traffic in the city center of Tel Aviv due to metro construction. I enjoyed the broad coastline, the warm, pleasant weather, delicious food, fine white wine, and exquisite appetizers. The environment felt warm and comfortable, reminiscent of the French Riviera. The people there were warm, optimistic, and relaxed, believing they lived in a European climate. I never had the opportunity to visit Israel again. We corresponded and spoke with our representative a few times and submitted bids for a few jobs, but it wasn't practical to conduct direct business in Israel to enable us to enter other Middle Eastern markets, especially since the market was small. While everyone else was going around visiting holy sites, returning without engaging with the local people, my experience was different. I met and interacted with people in Israel’s business life, gaining significant insights. In the following years, Israel made investments in solar energy and offshore wind, discovering Mediterranean underwater natural gas reserves. It partially freed itself from its dependence on imported fuel and plans to close all imported coal thermal plants by 2025.

Blue Voyage 2024

Blue Voyage Notes 2024 Kekova Üçağız… September 14, 2024, Saturday…. We set out from Ankara in the morning. At night, we stayed at Yalçındağ Hotel in Burdur. We visited the Burdur Archaeological Museum and saw the magnificent statues found in Sagalassos. After breakfast, we hit the road toward Antalya. We passed through Kemer and Demre. The last 50 km to Üçağız was a challenging, winding, uphill road. We arrived at the pier of the Kekova Üçağız village. We sat at a café by the shore until 4:00 PM. I parked the car in the municipality’s parking lot for 50₺ per day. At 4:00 PM, our group of eleven friends boarded the boat. We were welcomed by our captain, our cook from Hatay, and two crew members. Our boat, a Bodrum Gulet type, was purchased secondhand in 2000 for €500,000. It is 25 meters long, 7 meters wide, has two masts, six cabins, and a shaded upper deck. The boat is equipped with six solar panels that charge the batteries. In 2018, it was fitted with a new 380 hp Iveco diesel engine, which consumes 25 liters of diesel per hour and reaches speeds of 10-12 knots. It also has a backup gasoline generator. There was a dining table for twelve at the back and a viewing deck at the front. We set sail from the pier and anchored at the quiet and peaceful Gürkaya Cove, where we swam in the clean, warm water. We chatted with guests on a neighboring boat. In the evening, we enjoyed a wonderful meal of salad, şakşuka, shrimp, red mullet pilaki, and grilled sea bass. We finished with tea and fruit. We stayed up late, talking, sharing stories, and having fun. We slept on deck, using mosquito nets over the deck beds. September 15, 2024, Sunday… There was a strong storm on the open sea outside the cove. We had a delicious breakfast with cheese, olives, toasted bread, menemen, fries, jam, tea, and coffee. Later, we moved to another cove during the storm. We anchored at the quiet and empty Buzağılık Cove. This time, the water was very cold. Despite wearing a protective vest, I still felt the chill. Last year, we paid around €400 per person for a seven-day boat trip in Bodrum’s Gökova Gulf. This year, for the same duration along the Kekova coast, including food but excluding drinks, we’re paying €500. The Turkish Central Bank keeps the Euro suppressed. If the real value of the Euro were 50₺, the price would drop to €400. We spent the night in a sheltered cove, away from the storm. After dinner, we stayed up chatting until midnight, having a great time. A strong storm was expected on the open sea all week. September 16, 2024, Monday.. We set sail early in the morning, heading to Demre Çayağzı Harbor on the open sea. The waves were high, so we turned back without anchoring and headed to Gökkaya Cove. The cove was crowded, with nearly forty boats of various sizes. It was well sheltered. There was a storm on the open sea, with winds reaching about 25 knots. Recently, a 25-meter tour boat sank off the coast of Fethiye. The passengers were rescued by coastal rescue teams. For lunch, we had green beans, bulgur pilaf, yogurt, and salad. Afterward, we paid the remaining balance of the tour to the captain in cash. He went to Demre by another boat to deposit the money in the bank. For dinner, we had grilled meatballs, vegetable dishes, salad, and fruit. Afterward, we played music using a power box and Spotify on an iPhone, danced, shared stories and jokes, and laughed a lot. It was like therapy. Once again, we slept on the deck. The sea was calm, the weather was warm, and there was a full moon in the sky. September 17, 2024, Tuesday. 28°C, wind 10 knots SWS The captain returned from Demre by boat in the morning. We set sail at 8:00 AM, navigating the open sea and entering Demre Çayağzı Harbor. We anchored offshore. Two of our friends with health issues were taken ashore by zodiac boat. They visited a health clinic, received cortisone injections, and got medication from the pharmacy. It turns out there were sea lice, which are jellyfish larvae that cause itching. They are abundant along the Kekova coast. I swam in the clean and calm water. As the boat set sail, I barely made it back onboard. We checked two coves, but both were windy. Finally, we anchored at Şafak Cove, where there were many Mediterranean monk seals. The wind picked up to 25 knots, so we moved again to a more sheltered cove. For lunch, we had chicken schnitzel, fries, salad, and fruit. We had tea and coffee afterward, enjoying conversations at the table. In the late afternoon, we moved again and anchored at a less windy shoreline. When raising the anchor, the chain slipped, and we had to work to free it. For dinner, we had grilled sea bream, followed by ice cream and fruit. Afterward, we sang songs, listened to music, danced, and enjoyed ourselves until midnight. Late at night, some friends swam in the moonlight. The sky was clear, with a full moon overhead. September 18, 2024, Wednesday… 28°C, wind 10 knots SWS We anchored by Kekova Island. There were many well-fed goats on the island, all wearing bells. In the morning, we were woken by the sound of their bells. Afterward, we set sail and docked at the Kekova Üçağız pier, where we replenished our fresh water and supplies. We walked ashore for a bit. There were about 100 small and large boats at the dock. Our boat was being cleaned. I took a walk along the shore. There was a mobile İş Bank branch and ATM inside a minibus. Many guesthouses were also present, with bed and breakfast prices around 3000₺. Daily boat tours were 10,000₺, or 1000₺ per person. I walked to the municipal parking lot to check on our car; it looked fine. I also checked on two other friends' cars—one had left the front right window open. We called our friend, and they closed it. Later, the boat was cleaned at the pier, and we anchored off Kaleköy. For lunch, we had stuffed peppers, pasta with yogurt, and salad, followed by coffee. Some people took the boat to visit Kaleköy, while I stayed on deck to read a book. Later, we moved again and arrived at Hamidiye Cove. Some guests went swimming while I continued reading on deck. In the evening, we had a lively dinner. Afterwards, accompanied by drinks, we sang songs and danced. The sky was clear, there was no wind, and the moon shone brightly. When I went to bed, I mistakenly chose the bed diagonal from my usual spot. They woke me up at midnight to tell me. Dilek stayed in the other corner of the deck beds. I couldn’t sleep, so I got up at midnight, wrapped myself in a blanket, and sat on the front deck, watching the moon. I dozed off and woke up intermittently. September 19, 2024, Thursday… 28°C, wind 17 knots WNW… We anchored on the east side of Kayaköy, in Hamidiye Cove. In the morning, I woke up to the sound of the call to prayer from the front deck. At dawn, many fishing boats were setting off. Roosters crowed, dogs barked, and sailboats passed by. The morning light gradually brightened the sky. In 1912, after Italy occupied Meis (Kastellorizo) Island, they also took control of Kekova Island, which was only seasonally inhabited for timber harvesting. The Italians established a garrison, deploying soldiers. Kekova remained a point of contention between Italy and Turkey for a long time. In 1932, the island was officially ceded to Turkey under the Italy-Turkey Treaty. On the southern coast of Kekova, facing the open sea, there is an abandoned Italian military outpost. We had breakfast and went for a swim. Day boats from Kayaköy came and went. We raised anchor and moved again, circling around Kekova Island. We visited the Sunken City, where you can see homes and temples carved into the rocks from pagan, Lycian, Roman, and early Christian times. You can only sail around it; stopping or swimming is forbidden. We anchored at the secluded and protected Snail Cove behind the island, swam, and had hamburgers for lunch. The cove is very sheltered, with no cell phone signal or internet. We spent the night here. The island’s shores are rocky, with pine trees. For dinner, we had sea bream. Later, we shared stories at the table, listened to music, sang songs, and danced the halay. Some went for a midnight swim. September 20, 2024, Friday…. 28°C, wind 5 knots SW... Today is our last day on the boat. We had breakfast. I didn’t eat bread. The bay was very crowded, and the water seemed a bit dirty to me, so I didn’t swim. By noon, we left Snail Bay on Kekova Island and entered Pine Bay. For lunch, we had sushi, pasta with seafood, and salad. We swam in the sea with life vests. The bay faced the open sea, and the water was quite cold. In the afternoon, we had homemade cake from the captain’s wife and drank tea. Those who went fishing with the Zodiac boat caught a small bonito. We gave the crew an extra payment as a token of appreciation. Later, we sang songs, listened to music, and took selfies. September 21, 2024, Saturday… 28°C, wind 10 knots WNW... After breakfast, we said our goodbyes. We left the boat, hoping to reunite next year. I want to thank everyone for this unforgettable vacation we had on the *Kah…* boat along the Kekova coasts from September 14 to 21, 2024. Throughout the day, we shared our memories, which was like a form of therapy, sang songs, listened to music, and danced the halay. We danced. We lived like one big family. We spent nights in secluded bays that we would not have been able to reach otherwise. We fell asleep under the incredible sight of the full moon in beautiful settings. We extend our gratitude to our experienced, talented, and knowledgeable captain for making this wonderful experience possible, to our chef for presenting us with the unique flavors of Hatay cuisine, and to our dear crew members who were always by our side. Kekova, September 21, 2024…

Soma Deniş

New Soma Deniş Thermal Power Plant (2x255 MWe) evaluation As an investor venturing into the establishment of a cutting-edge thermal power plant utilizing Soma Deniş coal, we would meticulously opt for the time-tested and efficient Soma-B no-5-6 steam boilers, each boasting an impressive capacity of 165 MWe. Taking it a step further, we would elevate this fundamental design by integrating sizable E/P and FGD (Electrostatic Filter and Flue Gas Desulphurization) units, alongside advanced preheating units for coal dewatering. Our vision for the plant's location would take it to the northeastern section of the mine, situated on untouched, arid treasury land, rather than amidst the northwest forest. While acknowledging the absence of water in this chosen site, our strategic solution would entail establishing a comprehensive pipeline system to transport water from the nearby available water sources. Additionally, we would prioritize the construction of a state-of-the-art ash pond to ensure sustainable and eco-conscious disposal of waste materials. However, let's address the current reality. The power plant has been erected within the northwest forest, sandwiched between the Türkpiyale and Kayrakaltı villages, far from coal source. Consequently, this has led to challenges in the coal band conveyor transportation process, necessitating the use of trucks, which undoubtedly impacts overall efficiency and electricity cost. The mismatched CFB design, ill-suited for the high ash content and abundant water characteristics of this particular coal (with approximately 1000-1500 kcal per kg LHV), has resulted in an excessive reliance on fuel oil. Furthermore, the realization of a missing coal preheating unit came too late in the process, leading to its belated construction. Despite the efforts to keep the power plant operational, it is now running under constrained conditions. Regrettably, the counsel from invited foreign experts has often proven irrelevant and impractical. Compounding the situation, the foreign contractor completed the project and departed, leaving local young engineers to grapple with critical issues, causing substantial operational setbacks. In light of these challenges, the capacity mechanism and the addition of fuel oil have inadvertently contributed to the inefficiency of the new power plant. Historically, Turkey has progressed in the field of coal technology with technical support and investments from foreign countries. Naturally, there can be variations in technological and industrial developments among nations. Some countries have invested in coal technologies earlier and are more advanced, while others may have less experience in this area. However, technological advancements are continuously evolving, and every country can enhance its technological capabilities through original research and development efforts. Turkey, too, can work towards developing its own coal technologies and nurturing local experts. This process can be supported through research and development activities, contributions from universities, private sector support, and government investments. Instead of comparing ourselves to other countries' levels of advancement, we can assess our own potential and progress by devising appropriate strategies. By doing so, we can cultivate our own experts in coal technologies and enhance our technological independence. Ankara, 1st August 2023

EMRA

What does EMRA do? The Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) has been operating as the regulatory and supervisory body of Turkey's energy sector since 2001. It is responsible for regulating and overseeing energy markets such as electricity, natural gas, LPG, petroleum, and renewable energy. The main objective of EMRA is to ensure that energy resources reach consumers in a high-quality, cost-effective, and environmentally friendly manner. EMRA is funded through license fees collected from energy production and distribution companies. For example, in 2018, EMRA received significant license fees from prominent natural gas distribution companies like BOTAŞ. These fees are generally included in energy prices and passed on to consumers. The institution also has a broad legal team to develop regulatory guidelines for energy markets. However, EMRA’s structure and functioning have occasionally faced criticism. Some have pointed out that similar organizations like Ofgem in the UK operate more efficiently with a smaller and less complex setup. Additionally, concerns have been raised regarding the predominance of legal experts on the EMRA’s board and the limited number of engineers, leading to potential shortcomings in handling technical matters and oversight. EMRA’s levies substantial license fees from producer companies to perform its licensing and monitoring duties. To fulfill these responsibilities, it maintains an extensive and experienced legal team. License fees are passed on to consumers through electricity prices. EMRA utilizes the funds obtained from license fees to regulate and supervise energy markets. Its budget and expenses are subject to approval and audit by the Ministry of Finance. Moreover, the Court of Accounts (Sayıştay) and the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM) have the authority to audit the institution's expenses. After covering personnel salaries and office expenses, EMRA transfers the remaining funds to the treasury. This ensures that its revenues and expenditures are under control, and budget discipline is maintained. Pursuing unnecessary expenditures to avoid transferring funds to the treasury is not feasible due to legal regulations, and the institution is expected to adhere to ethical principles. Observations and criticisms indicate that EMRA requires structural transformation. Implementing necessary reforms to make the institution more effective, efficient, and technologically competent can aid EPDK in becoming a more efficient regulatory body. Ankara, 8th August 2023.