İsrael iran conflict

Is an Israel-Iran War Possible? These are extremely challenging times. If Israel decides to expand the conflict by striking Iranian facilities, it could spark a major crisis in the region with far-reaching consequences. Let’s explore how each actor might respond and what potential developments could arise from such a scenario: Israel Striking Iranian Facilities Israel has long viewed Iran’s nuclear program as a significant threat. In recent years, the heightened tensions have fueled speculation that Israel may plan to strike Iran’s nuclear sites. Should Israel take such a step, it would likely target Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, escalating the conflict. However, this move also carries substantial risks for Israel. Iran’s Response Iran could react swiftly and harshly to any Israeli aggression. Possible responses might include: Missile Strikes: Iran could launch direct missile and rocket attacks on Israel. Additionally, it might mobilize regional proxy forces like Hezbollah to increase rocket fire from Lebanon into Israel. Threat to Maritime Security: Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. This move would send oil prices soaring and strain the global economy. Cyberattacks: Iran may launch widespread cyberattacks on both Israel and its Western allies, aiming to disrupt critical infrastructure. Regional Proxies: Iranian-backed Shia militias in regions like Syria, Iraq, and Yemen could launch attacks targeting Israel and its allies, broadening the conflict. U.S. Involvement The United States, as Israel’s strategic ally, has consistently reaffirmed its commitment to Israel’s security. If Israel launches an attack on Iran, U.S. intervention would be highly likely: Military Support: The U.S. could provide Israel with air defense systems, military supplies, and intelligence to help defend against Iranian retaliation. Diplomatic Pressure: The U.S. might ramp up economic sanctions against Iran, increasing international pressure. However, U.S. involvement could potentially lead to direct confrontation with Iran, increasing Washington’s military presence in the Middle East. Arab Countries The response of Arab countries would be complex. Some Arab nations may indirectly support Israel’s actions, motivated by their own concerns over Iran’s influence: Saudi Arabia and Gulf States: Known for their anti-Iran stance, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE might quietly approve of any weakening of Iran. However, they may refrain from openly siding with Israel to avoid backlash from their domestic populations. Egypt and Jordan: With diplomatic ties to Israel, these countries might aim to maintain a neutral position, seeking diplomatic solutions to avoid regional escalation. Russia and China’s Stance Russia and China would navigate this crisis with different dynamics: Russia: As a key ally of Iran, Russia would oppose any Israeli strike. Given its presence in Syria, Russia might work to prevent a direct clash between Israel and Iran. Russia could also provide military support to Iran while advocating for diplomatic negotiations to stabilize the region. China: With significant energy interests in Iran, China may politically support Iran but would likely avoid direct involvement. China’s priority would be to prevent instability that could disrupt regional stability and global markets. Turkey’s Role In such a situation, Turkey should maintain a low profile and avoid unnecessary rhetoric or taking sides. Turkey’s geographic location places it in a precarious position, and maintaining its traditional neutrality would be the best course of action. A potential Israeli strike on Iran could expand the scope of conflict across the region, dragging in multiple actors and potentially transforming a regional crisis into a global one. Such an escalation would profoundly impact global energy markets, economic stability, and the regional security architecture. In the end, an Israeli attack on Iran could trigger a dangerous chain of events with worldwide repercussions.

Israel 1990

Experience of a Business Trip to Israel.. At the beginning of 1990, our Turkish-American joint venture received a request from our American partner regarding the Ashdod refinery in Israel. They sought to renovate the aging package-type steam boilers. The outdated equipment, including burners, valves, and pumps, needed updating, and a new automatic control system was to be installed. To proceed, a site visit was necessary. Our American partner instructed us to "go see the site, learn what is needed, write us a report, and then we can prepare our proposal accordingly." I was tasked with this assignment. I obtained a 10-day visa from the Istanbul consulate. At the airport, I underwent thorough questioning both on departure and return. Two different teams asked me the same questions, comparing my answers before allowing me to board the plane. After boarding, I landed at Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport. I took a taxi to the Tel Aviv Hilton Hotel, a beautiful multi-story building by the seaside. It was Saturday, or Shabbat, so there were no operations. The elevators stopped automatically on each floor, and it was forbidden to operate anything electrical. Services were unavailable, and even pressing the light switch was prohibited. Everything was prepared in advance. On Sunday, the U.S. company's representative picked me up from the hotel and took me to their office in the industrial zone to the north. They were a familiar intermediary firm representing various interests. I was briefed on the Ashdod refinery: who was involved, who I would be speaking to, the roles of each authority figure, their behaviors, and what questions to expect. We then traveled to Haifa, where we sat on a hill overlooking the port and had lunch. Along the way, we passed an important university specializing in electronics and computer science. On Monday morning, I was picked up from the hotel again. We headed south toward the Ashdod refinery. En route, we passed by the large Ashkelon thermal power plant, which has a capacity of 2x550 MWe and burns imported coal. This plant was also constructed by our American partner. Today, Israel extracts natural gas from offshore underwater fields, reducing its dependence on imported fuel. Although it still buys some imported coal for diversification, it plans to close all imported coal plants by 2025. Upon arriving at the refinery, we were taken to a conference room, where I faced a group of male and female engineers, most of whom were graduates of Israeli universities. Among them were family members who had migrated from Turkey, including Istanbul and Izmir. We exchanged a few words in Turkish. I distributed the documents I had prepared, and the discussions proceeded in English. Presenting the package steam boilers was my area of expertise, and my mental script kicked in. For an hour, I explained the boilers, equipment, rehabilitation processes, and control systems. I encouraged them to ask more questions, particularly about control and automation, where I anticipated the most challenging inquiries. However, few questions arose, possibly because they didn't want to put me on the spot. Afterward, we went to lunch, enjoying a generous business meal consisting of soup, salad, a choice of main course (chicken, fish, kosher meat), vegetables, dessert, fruit, and tea or coffee. The weather was pleasantly warm, and there was a very positive atmosphere towards the Turkish guests. The old package boilers had been manufactured by our American partner, so they were familiar to us. In the afternoon, I visited the site of the over 20-year-old boilers. They did not allow me to take photographs. I was not permitted to take notes either. They told me, "You’ve seen and visited; you can’t write here, take notes, or take photos. Just write your report based on what you remember." I couldn’t even collect business cards from the people I met, but I made sure to distribute my own generously. In the late afternoon, we held a general evaluation meeting at our representative's office. We discussed not only this project but also what we could offer to other companies on different matters. That evening, there was a significant classical music concert at the Tel Aviv concert hall. It was exactly my taste, but tickets had been purchased days in advance. Our hosts planned to attend with their spouses, so they dropped me off at the hotel around 7 PM before heading to the concert without me. At that time, Israel had a population of 5 million and a concert hall with a capacity of 3,000 seats. They had managed to build this concert hall by cutting costs. I would have been very pleased to attend if they had given me a ticket, but it didn’t happen. The next morning, I took a taxi to Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion International Airport. Again, I underwent cross-examination by two teams. The first team asked questions in English, while the second team spoke perfect Turkish. Luckily, I passed the questioning and boarded my flight. We flew to Istanbul on a Turkish Airlines flight for two hours, and upon landing, I immediately transferred to a flight to Ankara. On the way, I wrote my site visit report in English. I typed it up on a desktop computer in the office and distributed it internally. I also faxed it to the U.S. headquarters. We prepared our proposal in accordance with the request list and sent it out. Our inability to conduct direct business in Israel hindered our operations in other Middle Eastern countries. Unlike American and Canadian companies, we were restricted from working in Israel, so we could not take on the rehabilitation project directly. We passed the work to our Canadian firm. They provided the materials and equipment, while our local representative's local subcontractors handled the labor, and a supervisor came from Canada, earning $1,000 a day plus travel expenses. We received reimbursement from our American partner for the expenses of my site visit. I don’t remember the exact amount; it was probably around $10,000. What stays in my memory are the ultra-Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods with men in black suits and hats, and women soldiers walking with heavy infantry rifles during their weekend holiday. There was heavy traffic in the city center of Tel Aviv due to metro construction. I enjoyed the broad coastline, the warm, pleasant weather, delicious food, fine white wine, and exquisite appetizers. The environment felt warm and comfortable, reminiscent of the French Riviera. The people there were warm, optimistic, and relaxed, believing they lived in a European climate. I never had the opportunity to visit Israel again. We corresponded and spoke with our representative a few times and submitted bids for a few jobs, but it wasn't practical to conduct direct business in Israel to enable us to enter other Middle Eastern markets, especially since the market was small. While everyone else was going around visiting holy sites, returning without engaging with the local people, my experience was different. I met and interacted with people in Israel’s business life, gaining significant insights. In the following years, Israel made investments in solar energy and offshore wind, discovering Mediterranean underwater natural gas reserves. It partially freed itself from its dependence on imported fuel and plans to close all imported coal thermal plants by 2025.