Wednesday, February 07, 2018

TURKEY: Local R&D in Japanese tailor procedure



The last time I attended a social gathering, my highly experienced professional colleagues of the local market complaint that in general there is no R&D made in recent years in the local market, but only copies. "Nobody is making a sheet of technical drawing, but there is a practise to substitute for copying and duplicating the equipment, machine, and device that come in front of them." Most of the other members in the meeting were inclined to participate to this notion. I do not quite agree with this market assessment. In the 1980s, we had an obligatory R&D experience, let me tell you about it.
I worked manufacturing halls more than 10 years in a public machine production factory. Then they took me to the design section. At that time, we got a license from a German VKW (and EVT) companies for 50 tph coal burning and 100 tph fuel oil burning steam boilers. Two each boiler pieces were sent to us with 100 percent material and we installed them on site.
They gave us a new task of reproducing the missing technical drawings. A small number of general arrangement drawings were received but they were inadequate. Boiler materials, tubes, grids were physically sent. We drew all of them in detailed drawings, then we produced these boilers. We installed these boilers on site, we operated for many years.
Later in time, management gave me a new task directly. "Now you learned how to copy. Now copy the guillotine, heavy duty lathe, and steel sheet cold bending benches. Continue to copy the horizontal sludge press, sugar centrifuge, raw factory lime tower."
I gathered all the technical draftsmen working in the design bureau. I gave each one tasks for copying a machine. Wherever they do not understand, I interfered and drafted the detailing. After a long tiresome disastrous period, technical drawings were prepared and we finished the drafting work.
When copying large-sized workshop drawings, we were trapped with old-age "Japanese Tailor" fault. What did "Japanese Tailor" do first? Let me explain it. Japanese tailors are doing great designs around the world today. It was not like that at the beginning. They had a learning period. In the 1850s Japan forced by the US fleet to open its doors to the western world. Later, top rulers decided to open the embassy in other countries. They would send diplomats to Western countries. The managers thought, "It's necessary to dress like a Westerner. It would not be appropriate to go there with our own traditional clothes, let's create western dresses". They asked a Western Christian missionary in Japan to give his western dresses. They would create the same and wear it on the diplomats they send. The poor missionary gave his worn-out old western dresses. Because dresses were so old and used, there were patches on the knee and elbows of the clothe. "Japanese Tailor" made the patches exactly the same. The wrong addition of the patches on new clothes was quickly understood. It was corrected after they noticed the reaction at points they were assigned to and tailors created new dresses. The rest of the diplomats have received new dresses, but the "Japanese Tailor" application has become a necessary lessons learnt to be taken in copying practice.
When we copied it, we made the same mistakes, as ancient "Japanese Tailor". Heavy big tools were made of steel casting. When we made copy, we evaluated that most of them were suitable to make in welded steel constructions. When we were re-designing, we examined the thicknesses, but some unnecessary attachments were duplicated. It turned out that we made the same mistake of patches of the Japanese Tailor copied. After we made the first machines, we noticed the situation. We made necessary corrections in the next manufacturing.
Later, necessary budget money was allocated by the top management. Heavy duty shop machines were produced for other machine factories. Capacity of sugar equipment was enlarged and re-built. This process continued for years. Meanwhile, the technical pictures we sent to the manufacturing workshop were to disappear. Shop asked more blue prints. "Blue prints are worn out, damaged, lost etc", they said. We have never ceased to give a new blue prints to workshop.
I left the factory in 1984. Time passed, in a casual trip to nearby organized industrial zone in Ankara, I noticed that in some workshops our steel sheet bending, guillotine, lathe, centrifugal are produced with the same design. The technical pictures were our pictures, but nameplates have been changed. Auto-cad design introduced, catalogs were printed. We, engineers, draftsmen, technical staff, have not earned any more than our monthly salaries. But the technical drawings we produced in the public factory have been used free-of charge in the market. I have no objection, it was very good.The market produced these pictures. At least it was a start. So R&D was done, but it was not done as it should be. It was made inexpensively in accordance with the "market" conditions. That's the rule of our game!
Later in time, on the market I also saw the steam boilers that we copied. Our technical drawings have been transferred to the market in some way. I have no objection to that. I wish we could also design larger thermal power plants and transfer them to the market.
In the energy and mining sector, we have designs for both open pit coal mining (Elbistan-Eüaş etc.), or in coal-based thermal power plants (Çatalağzı, Çanakkale, Tufanbeyli) each with capacities up to 6x900 KW, with maximum length of 3.6 Km, and conveyor facilities and equipments in carrying capacities up to 11500 tons per hour, and manufactured in Ankara. There is no objection to copy from the examples, or to benefit from the old projects. Because, without first and preliminary information, there is no new development.


Ankara, 7 February 2018

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Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.

This article is written for "EurasiaReview" web site release.

Sunday, February 04, 2018

Modern Interpretation of Donizetti's Opera "L'elisir D'amore"



Modern Interpretation of Donizetti's Opera "L'elisir D'amore"
Premier of Ankara 3-February 2018 Saturday at 20 hours


The opera "L'elisir D!amore", which was prepared in modern interpretation, opened to Ankara Premier on Saturday February 3, 2018. The 18th century opera house on a farm moved to the open office of a large company at a business center of a big city on a modern stage. The opera starts with the staff coming in the morning in the accompaniment of the overture music. Men are in dark business suits with tie, women are in good business attires. Everyone has their IDs on their necks, laptop computers on the tables. It is obvious that this is an export-import trading company. There is a poor office-boy Nemorino (wonderful tenor Emre Akkuş), he distributes the letters of the incoming documents and cargo packages. There is an automatic coffee machine on the left corner. Then the director of the office Adina (beautiful soprano Görkem Ezgi YILDIRIM) enters to the environment, climbs to her prestigious office of the left staircase with her administrative assistant. She's reading her emails on the laptop. The cute executive secretary, Giannetta (Ezgi Karakaya), supervises her employees and distributes new tasks. Everyone works with laptop desktop computers on their desk. Then big boss CEO Belcore (Beran Sertkaya) enters, behind him there are three bodyguards in their black suits with black ties. I read it as a reference to Hollywood "Men in black, Blues brothers, matrix" movies. The ego tops a roof. Later the life coach, or managerial consultant Dr Dulcamara (Özgür Savaş Gençtürk) makes ppt presentation on the screen, adding white board explanations. We understand that he has traveled around the world. He has photographs in front of Egyptian pyramids, New York skyscrapers, even with Angelina Jolly. He has an Hollywood star on the street. He sells and distributes his books. Office boy wants help from him for love, Dr Dulcamara gives him the wine from his pocket and then all happens. It was an incredibly beautiful staging. The most beautiful opera piece I've seen in recent years. I need to go to every stage. This opera should not be missed.
The opera Italian name L'elisir d'amore is a two-act opera in the form of melodrama giocassa (melodramatic play) composed by Italian composer Gaetano Donizetti. The premiere of the opera was first performed at the "Teatro della Canobbiana" theater on May 12, 1832 in Milan. First time in Turkey staged in 1952 at the Ankara Opera. In the last years, stage director Mrs Yekta Kara performed another excellent modern staging in Istanbul Süreyya opera house. Your writer has already watched and wrote about it while on stage earlier.
The modern interpretation of Ankara is completely different. Mrs Figen Ayhan Karakelle, the young director, performs a wonderful work. This opera is a masterpiece, extraordinary"


Music by: Gaetano Donizetti
Libretto by: Felice Romani
Premiere: May 12, 1832 in Teatro della Canobbiana, Milano
Players in ankara on 3rd February 2018
Nemorino: Simple office-boy, in love with Adina, tenor Emre Akkuş
Adina, Company Manager, soprano, Görkem Ezgi Yıldırım
Belcore: CEO rich boss, baritone, Beran Sertkaya
Dulcamara: Life coach, bas, Savaş Gençtürk
Giannetti: Executive secretary, soprano, Ezgi Karakaya
Company Employees (chorus), Belcore's body guards / assistants


CONDUCTOR Alessandro Cedrone
Director: Mrs Figen Ayhan Karakelle
DECOR Ozgur Usta
COSTUME: Gazal Erten
Choire Chief Giampaolo Vessala
LIGHT: Fuat Gök


Original Place:
A small village in the Basque country in the north of Spain, in 18th century
The modern staging takes place in a company office in a business center, time is today.
This opera has the famous aria "Una furtiva lagrima" which is very famous and presented separately in musical concerts.
In the Premier presentation, it was a misfortunate, the voice went, the evil eye became, so, the audience supports with applause.
Watch before in CDs, YouTube, mezzo records. Get in your ear, memorise your mind. Do not trust digital stuff on the stage, it is not read very lightly.
The work will take place on the Ankara Opera Ballet scene between 07-19 February 2018, 07-12-19-26 March 2018 and 9-April 2018.
Tickets are on sale online at 10:00 a.m. a month earlier.
If you go to Opera-Ballet in the morning, you can buy your ticket in cash or by credit card directly at 09-10 hours.
After the box office sales, there is not much seats left in the internet ticket.


Ankara, 4 February 2018
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Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.


Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Energy Digest for International Investors 2018, eBook in PDF

Saturday, December 09, 2017

Turkey: Future of Solar Energy


Total installed power in our country is 82GWe by the end of 2017. We expected that the share of renewable energy plants in total production would increase over time. The share of imported and fossil fuels would decrease, and the import and fossil fuel dependency would decrease. That was not so.
It is estimated that the total installed capacity of solar power generating power plants will reach 2400 MWe by the end of 2017. Total licensed Solar projects during the year was 52 MW.
This amount could be taken into operation as 13 MW, the remaining are on hold. Non-Licensed projects are too many in numbers, whereas the licensed projects are very few. We have made the license procedures so hard that nobody wants licensed business. The investors prefer that it is better to form dozens or even hundreds of companies each with 1-MWe capacities and connect them.
Solar investment costs are now very low. In 2005, incentives were introduced by Law No. 5346. Guaranteed sale prices then were at 5.00-5.50 EuroCent per KWhour in 2005, while it is at $Cent 13.30 per KWhour in 2010. Solar maps were released. Transmission capacities were determined. In 2014-2015, 6 different tenders were released and 600 MW new solar capacity was created. In year 2017, a new Solar capacity of 1000 MWe was created through the competitive renewables tender.
Solar cells and panel prices have been excessive cheaper. in time. By the end of 2017, 24-25 $ Cent per Wp prices were received. Import incentives given by the Ministry of Economy to Solar panel imports in 2012 were deleted in 2016. In 2016, domestic production could be replied in the amount demanded by the internal market. With Anti Dumping and additional VAT application, foreign panel import prices have reached to 60 $ Cent per Wp level. Then Domestic producers have increased their prices to 50 $ Cent per Wp to take advantage of the market prices.
In 2014-2015, transmission authority opened 6 tenders and allocated Solar projects to 49 companies with a total capacity of 600MW. Companies have committed to pay TL 1.23 billion of contribution to the allocation. The two companies have completed their operations and have been operating the Solar investments at a capacity of 13 MW. The other companies received the incentive certificates at a capacity of 120 MW, but due to cost increases, the remaining 480 MW capacity projects were locked and are on hold. Because the conditions before the tender were changed after the tender. Initially there was incentives, then incentives were unfairly removed.
In 2010, the new renewables law set the electricity purchase price for Solar investments as 13.30 $Cents per KWh for 10 years.
The winner of the 1000 MWe renewable Solar bid in 2017 reduced this price to 6.99 $Cent per KWh.
The winning group accepted local investment for 500 MWe per yr production capacity and 500 million US$ investment- budgeted production facility in the country.
On the other hand, in 2017 we observed similar tenders abroad.
In Saudi Arabia, the price is 1.79 $cents per KWh, in Germany 4.30 EuroCent, 2.10 $Cents in Chile and 1.77 $cents in Mexico. We are observing big discounts on Solar tenders. However, the Ministry of Economy tax collection efforts deter our investors.
On the other hand, we have gone so difficult as to license the work, that everyone is trying to invest under unlicensed 1-MW projects. In 2005, unit MW cost Solar investment was 4,000 US Dollars, while in 2017 Solar investment cost per unit KW decreased to 700-800 US Dollars. In 2017, market observes only 13 MW licensed Solar, whereas unlicensed Solar at 2400 MW. Public regulatory authorities were a bit indifferent at the beginning. But when they enter the system, the investor feels to regret their applications.
For example, they may ask to use 50% of the electricity produced in investors auto consumption. Continuous storage may be required. They may limit the possession of company shares.
Solar sector currently employs around 20-thousand workers. Currently, 26 different enterprises assemble with Solar PV panels. The majority of fabricators are undergoing simple construction, cabling, framing work, whereas 75-80% of total investment is still imported. The actual production renewable coverage will be made at the last 1000 MW renewable facilities. Others will finish their work in their hands and close their businesses. Then 20-thousand people could be unemployed.
On the other hand, in the recent Solar facilities in operation, installed power loss is observed to be 20-25% within a few months.
At home scale Roof-top Solar installation should be well examined. House sizes are limited to 10kW capacity, that is not feasible. On top roof of existing structures, an additional load of 25 kg per square meter is to be added. The current roof structures are not enough to carry this additional load. The duration of use of summer houses are 3-4 months, and the roof Solar investment return is not enough for this period. Billing is difficult to deduct. There is a high risk of fire, so insurance coverage is difficult.
There are those who bring the fertile agricultural land to the barren land by saying that they will build a solar energy plant. Let them God to show them the right way.
There are three different associations in the local Solar market, GÜNDER, GENSED, GÜYAD. Why are there three separate associations? Why is not there one single association to cover all interest groups? This is another important question.
We started with good intentions, but we have a lot of work to do.
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Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.
This article is written for the "EurasiaReview" news web site.
http://www.eurasiareview.com/author/haluk-direskeneli/

Ankara, 10 December 2017

Monday, December 04, 2017

TURKEY: Energy & Infrastructure Forecast 2018


Risks and Opportunities

Economies and businesses are always shaped by expectations, just as market expectations are important in economic forecasts themselves. Within our professional capacity, we have tried to outline a draft forecast for the upcoming days. While it may not necessarily foresee the future in all its detail, it is better to have one, rather than none. Here are our short term new year predictions:

Energy supply security is within our prime concerns. Our installed capacity has reached to 82 GWe, and peak demand at 45 GWe in August 2017. Our local lignite production was about 50+ million metric tons in 2017. Hard coal production was 2 million metric tons. Imported hard coal was 30 million metric tons.
Earlier, S&P and then Moody's rating agencies have lowered our financial credibility to junk level, the other international rating agency (Fitch) is clever to postpone their Turkish ratings, however we all know that their late declaration is also meaning low rating for our investment environment. Rating agencies ask for transparency, rule of law, fair competition in our local market.
European Union has frozen accession meetings completely for participation since all remedy requests are returned with futile responses. Luxemburg, Germany, Austria, Sweden, Denmark have already voiced necessary applicable counter measures. Death penalty, unavoidable bribery and public corruption, sexual abuse under 15 are unacceptable for Europeans.
The recent tax as imposed on imported coal was a deterrent figure for future investments for imported coal firing thermal power plants. Anyhow the latest thermal power plants are exclusively built by Chinese companies due to their ultra low lump sum turnkey prices, covered by cheap PBoC project financing. However these plants have poor design, they have low spares, short life span. If you desperately need electricity generation, then price is not so important. The tax will be collected by our Treasury, and end price is also taxed so our Treasury will get all money from both ends, all other parties are intermediaries in the long run.
On the other hand, 5-6 US cents per kwh electricity purchase guarantee by public enterprises for local coal firing energy generation is a good booster for newcomer investors. However it is not so pleasing to place power plant construction orders to Chinese contractors just because of their ultra cheap turnkey prices for new local coal firing thermal power plant investments. These plants do not meet national standard, norms, rules, regulations, laws. They have poor design which are not applicable for local coal, they have limited or almost no spares and high breakdown, low availability and low life span during operation.
New tenders for local coal firing thermal power plants are in Cayirhan-2, Eskişehir Alpu, Konya Karaman, Trakya Saray. Soma and Çan thermal power plant investment projects are ongoing. Local people are not so comfortable with new local coal investments. There will be growing public reactions expected to stop these investments.
There are still imported coal firing investment projects in Çanakkale, Aliağa, Amasra, Iskenderun bay although imported coal is not encouraged any more..
On the other hand, 1000 MWe each wind and solar tenders were completed. We expect to have more of these investments in future.
Common consensus as created by independent foreign military commentators openly and frankly say that USA (and Nato forces) should leave Incirlik air base for the long term and they should move to relatively more secure or tranquil place such as Southern Cyprus, Northern Iraq, wherever they would feel more comfortable, more independent, more free to maneuver in the Middle East. USA will follow their indifference policy towards international events due to transfer of power after US Presidential elections.
On negotiation table behind closed doors in Moscow and Ankara (and Sochi), there were negotiations for new prices on natural gas sales, more concessions on 63 bcm capacity Turkish Stream underwater pipeline construction project and better terms for 4800 MWe nuclear contract etc. We should note that in the long term Mersin Akkuyu nuclear project may also serve as a new Russian military seaport on Mediterranean coast to reinforce Russian presence on hot seas.
Arab countries are completely ignorant of the events which took place at our environment since they have worse incidents they face every day. We have good deals with Iran due to our favorable gas purchase agreements. However due to their increased internal gas demand, they stopped sending gas to our system as of December. We have gas supply and energy generation drop in our energy markets.
National Security is to be reinforced since SouthEast insurgency may get worse. As seen everywhere in the world, such as in Ireland, Scotland, Bask in Spain, if minorities are not fairly represented in the national parliament, then they may look for their alternative solutions.
Bankruptcy postponement epidemic in the local markets spreads to low capital- small companies. that will be a high impact on our economy despite of unrealistic pictures as pronounced by public officials. People has lost confidence to public declarations. Foreign exchange rates may dive low in time.
There is a wide range consensus for low profile public appearance. People deactivate their accounts in social media. They are not interested in any public expression. Newspaper columns are repetition of earlier articles. People are indifferent to every event since so many nasty things have happened in the near past with no reasoning no meaning we can name. Immigration applications among academics and young professionals are on high rise. Similarly capital move from local to international markets are getting increased.
We believe that these are a few warning indicators, of which you will seldom read such candid forecast from a local source for our home environment anywhere else. We would be pleased to receive your comments and feedback over the course of the upcoming year.
Happy New Year and Merry Christmas to you all !!


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Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.


This article is written for the "EurasiaReview" news web site.
http://www.eurasiareview.com/author/haluk-direskeneli/

Ankara, 04 December, 2017
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