2017 Homeland Security Forecast
Minimizing size of military forces are general tendency in modern times provided that increase in rapid and heavy strike capability are essential. That is acceptable. But humiliation is not acceptable. Closure of prestigious national heritage war schools are not acceptable. We always need strong army in our geography for national survival. Remedial measures are necessary in the long run. Last but not least, commentators foresee that the last coup may take place in the Parliament. New opposition may emerge from the ruling party itself. That may appear in the next working session of the Parliament which would start on early October later this year. That is also the time for ending 3-month emergency period after 15-July attempt.
This is why ruling party asks other two opposition to join public solidarity in democratic union in mass demonstrations. If the last 15-July coup would succeed then we would have faced with unprecedented bloodshed everywhere. So any undemocratic counter attempt must be stopped upfront by all means.
Common consensus as created by independent foreign military commentators say that USA should leave Incirlik air base for the long term and should move to relatively more secure or tranquil place such as Southern Cyprus, Northern Iraq, wherever they would feel more comfortable, more independent, more free to maneuver in the Middle East. USA will follow their indifference policy towards international events due to hot topics of Presidential elections in the homeland.
On 9th August meetings which were held in St. Petersburg, Russians asked compensation upfront for downed SU-24 war plane for sure. On negotiation table behind closed doors, there were negotiations for new prices on natural gas sales, more concessions on 63 bcm capacity Turkish Stream underwater pipeline construction project and better terms for 4800 MWe nuclear contract etc.
European Union may soon stop accession meetings completely for our participation since all requests are returned with futile responses. Germany, Austria, Sweden, Denmark have already voiced necessary applicable counter measures. Death penalty, sexual abuse under 15 are unacceptable for Europeans.
First S&P and then Moody's rating agencies have lowered our credibility to junk level, the other international rating agency (Fitch) is clever to postpone their Turkish ratings, however we all know that their declaration is also meaning low rating for our investment environment.
Arab countries are completely ignorant of the events which took place at our environment since they have worse incidents they face every day. Their foreign ministries released copy paste declarations for the ruling party one after another.
Energy supply security is also within our prime concerns. Although we have good deals with Iran due to our gas purchase agreements, relations with Iran may get tense in the next three months since we have now minimized and limited military capability to respond at this point in time. That is very hard period after 15-July coup. National Security is to be reinforced since SouthEast insurgency may get worse. The people in SouthEast may look for their solution of independence.
The recent tax 15 $ per ton imposed on imported coal may be a deterrent figure for future investments for imported coal firing thermal power plants. Anyhow the latest thermal power plants are exclusively built by Chinese companies due to their ultra low lump sum turnkey prices. However these plants have poor design, they have low spares, short life span. If you desperately need electricity generation, then final price is not so important, the tax will be collected by our Treasury, and end price is also taxed so our Treasury will get all money from both ends, all other parties are intermediaries in the long run.
On the other hand, 6 US cents per kwh electricity purchase guarantee for local coal firing energy generation is a good booster for investors. However it is not so pleasing to place orders to Chinese contractors just because of their ultra cheap turnkey prices for new local coal firing thermal power plant investments. These plants have poor design which are not applicable for local coal, they have limited or almost no spares and high breakdown, low availability and low life span during operation.
Bankruptcy postponement epidemic in the local markets will spread to low capital- small companies. that will be a high impact on our economy despite of unrealistic pictures as created by public officials. People has lost confidence to public declarations. Foreign exchange rates may show high jump in time.
There is a wide range consensus for low profile public appearance. People deactivate their accounts in social media. They are not interested in any public expression. Newspaper columns are repetition of earlier articles. People are indifferent to every event since so many things have happened in the near past with no reasoning no meaning we can name.
Amnesty under code name prison reform will release 38 thousand immediate to 96 thousand convicts in long term, from overpopulated local prisons to make space for the accused of latest 15-July incident. We hope that courts work in time properly, rule of law is established, justice is ruled as in the books.
We believe that these are a few warning indicators, of which you will seldom read such candid forecast from a local source for our home environment anywhere else. We would be pleased to receive your comments and feedback over the course of the upcoming year.