Cyber Wars in Modern Times

Dear Energy Professionals, Dear Colleagues,

In year 1999, Middle East Technical University (METU) administration in Ankara terminated 30 years of nuclear education. By year 1999, METU graduates had already completed more than 2000 M.Sc. and Ph.D. Theses on the subject, all piled up at the METU Library. METU turned to more environmental and renewable energy education. Subsequently METU administration publicly announced that it has no intention to reopen the nuclear science engineering department.

Nuclear power plant design, engineering, manufacturing, installation and operation are sub-disciplines of mechanical engineering. Working principle of a nuclear power plant highly resembles to that of a thermal power plant. Instead of a fossil fuel, nuclear fuel is used to generate heat and electricity in a nuclear power plant. The core of nuclear fuel aside, a nuclear power plant's design is identical to a thermal power plant. Therefore we, mechanical engineers, can not distance ourselves from nuclear technology.

***

It was made public by NewYork Times in June 2012 article that, by joint work of the U.S. and Israeli computer scientists, a new secret and special computer virus named "Stuxnet v.0.5" was produced in 2007. In year 2009, with the permission of the President of the United States, the virus was infiltrated into Iran's Nuclear Power Plant control center by using an USB memory stick. In Busheir, where Iranian Natanz nuclear power plants are located, Siemens SCADA control center computers were infected. Most of the nuclear centrifuges were out of work. All computers in the power plant, plus all home PCs of the employees went into the trash. It is reported that this event delayed the plant start-up process of the construction more than 2 (two) years.

In the meantime, the virus was isolated by Iranian computer engineers. Stuxnet's software architecture have been analyzed and then with or without intentionally it has been released to the global environment via internet for reprisal.

In early 2013, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security has announced that, 2 (two) unnamed nuclear power plants in the USA were plagued with new clone virus. Plants were said to have stayed out of operation for almost 3 weeks due to virus attack into their computer control centers.

We estimate that the cost of loss of electricity generation is to be millions of U.S. Dollars at prevailing US electricity prices.

Stuxnet Virus v0.5 and the new clone virus produced from it (Flame) have become a very dangerous sort of an industrial war weapon. They can be considered as new weapons of industrial mass destruction (WIMD) so to speak, if that is not an exaggeration. In the near future, these viruses may not only stop the operation of a nuclear control system, but may also be able to initiate involuntary operation of a plant.

In case of a fatal accident, some functions may not be performed, or performed without full control, such as opening or closing valves. Security systems may not work, may work improperly, or in an unintended way. Power plants, water distribution systems are most vulnerable systems for such cyber attacks.

In the end, new "Three-Mile Island," "Chernobyl" or "Fukushima" men-made disasters may be recreated. What-if, such attacks are directed at the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant control room computers, and how do we control the necessary cyber security precautions, to repulse the cyber attack? Would we have a defense weakness/ vulnerability in the middle of nuclear calamity? It seems like as a science-fiction disaster, but it's a cold/ merciless reality.

Normal market based bidding methods to acquire nuclear power plant in Turkey could not be finalized in the past. In the end, political power decided to pass a legislation in year 2010, by placing a direct order to our Northern Neighbor for a nuclear power plant. It was a political decision without public scrutiny, and without any market competition.

Northern Neighbor has directly received the contract for Akkuyu nuclear power plant project. The first ball-park project budget was declared as 20 billion U.S. Dollars with the completion date of 2020. Revenue would be generated through electric sales to the local market, at treasury guaranteed figures determined upfront. However, most recently project overall cost has been increased, and the commercial operation date seems to be shifted forward.

In the contractor group, we know that there exists no Turkish shareholder. Waste control and central computer controls and plant safety are not clearly laid out for the public. We locals have no share, no direct construction participation, and we do not have a control over the technology, and its safety control mechanism. Moreover there is almost no technology transfer.

We need nuclear power technology. However, we need to ask what extent if the contracted nuclear capacity, technology, its location, and the method is right? It is a political investment project, therefore it can be financed under the terms of a political project financing. Political financing has limitations. Political credit ends in time. Big investment projects also need commercial loan. For political projects, it is difficult- even impossible, to find commercial loans.

There are also questions on basic design of the project, for instance,

How do you design the cooling system of this power plant by using the available very hot (+30 C) nearby sea water? Is there any contradiction with thermodynamic principles?

How will you control the nuclear waste? How will the nuclear waste be transported, moved, stored or dumped, and to where?

"May God bless and save us all", in case of any nuclear accident or disaster, how shall we save the local people? Is there any "emergency evacuation plan"? What is it? Where is it?

Every year we send our (100) selected young students for nuclear education to our Northern Neighbor's nuclear educational facilities. They will receive education/ training on nuclear physics and nuclear power plant operation, but not as nuclear design engineers, scientists, rather as trained operators of nuclear power plants. How shall we assign responsibility of the operation of the new nuclear power plant to our inexperienced new graduates?

Again with the same out of market direct contracting procedures in the past, we previously have contracted industrial installations to our Northern Neighbor. Earlier, Orhaneli 210 MWe coal fired thermal power plant in Bursa, Seydisehir Aluminum Plants, Iskenderun Iron and Steel factory were built in our environment, but they did not work properly, and could not be operated uninterrupted in the long term.

They were designed for the very cold climate of the Northern Neighbor, hence they could not be adjusted to our hot environment . They degraded fast in operation without having market compatibility or continuity.

European Network and Information Security Agency (ENISA) enforces security measures against such cyber attacks within the union. Agency is formed after deliberate cyber attacks to banking and financing centers of new member state Estonia in year 2007.

In France, almost 80% of the electricity is generated from nuclear plants. All the plants are of French design, built by French engineering, manufacturing, scientific, cyber security capability. Their entire engineering and design staff are French nationals, engineers, scientists. Although their waste management, their plant control system, and waste disposal systems have problems. They solve their problems by themselves.

In our case, we are completely alien to the project. We are all outsiders since ours is totally foreign to us. We still believe that METU could be the center of excellence for educating more scientists and engineers, not only for nuclear technology but also on cyber security. Your Comments are always welcome.

HalukDireskeneli at gmail dot com, Istanbul, Turkey

Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.

2013-04-26

HKW-Nord, Coal & RDF fired 411 MWe thermal power plant in Munich Germany

Dear colleagues,

On a Sunday morning, I preferred tour within Munich city. I took ride on S-bahn to Airport. On the  route I noticed a coal fired thermal power plant generating 411 Mwe electricty to the 110 kV major city transmission, and also generating low pressure heating steam for nearby district heating. 

Hard Coal  and municipality refuse (Refuse Drived Fuel) are brought by train wagons direct to the plant. There is no storage at the site other than tanks for supplementary fuel-oil. Bottom ash - slug is transported by the same means to dumping area outside of city limits. 

There is no apparent air pollution, no feeling for any dust, nor SOx or NOx emission. It was so surprising, as well as  very educating experience. 

The plant is in North of Munich as in combined heat and power plant powered the SWM .

It's right on the outskirts of Munich in the community Unterföhring .

It consists of three blocks, which are operated in a combined heat and power. They generate electricity and district heating . Block 2 is with coal fired (about 800,000 tonnes of hard coal per year), in blocks 1 and 3, municipality residual waste is incinerated (in year 2006: 700,000 tonnes). This waste comes from the waste company in Munich , the Munich District and other public and private suppliers. If additional heat demand is up then seven gas-fired boiler are operated (heating, built in 1974, 2 x 50 t / h and 1 × 100 t / h steam, auxiliary heating, built in 1989, 4 x 25 t / h of steam for heating). The cogeneration plant produces maximum heating capacity of 900 megawatts , which is a total of 411 megawatts of electrical power. 

The electrical power, is split on the individual blocks as follows:

• Block 1: 21 MW
• Block 2: 363 MW (at full load in condensing mode)
• Block 3: 27 MW

The cooling water from the nearby Mid-Isar river channel.

The power supply of Unit 2 is connected in the 380-kV high-voltage level in the mains distribution providers SWM infrastructure . 

The production of district heating supplies the entire range of the Munich Northwest. There are of HKW Nord from supplying the hot water networks North and Freimann, as also issued a more than 7 km long pipeline steam in the downtown steam network (compression from 3 to 5 in a steam flow rate of up to 720 tph).

All the best from Muenchen, Deutschland.

Haluk Direskeneli

La Sonnambula-Sleep Walking Girl in Alhambra Opera House in Izmir

Dear Colleagues, Dear Opera Lovers,

I work all week on an article. Sometimes preliminary draft work for one article goes to long past. I try to complete my  article  and submit to my Editor on Friday.  You read on hardcopy newspaper on Monday. Web site internet appearance is on next Wednesday. So we have 3-4 days of checking/ correction / editing period.

This week we shall talk on Opera.  Vincenzo Bellini's "La Sonnambula- SleepWalking Girl" Opera was in Alhambra stage  in Izmir on November 26-27-29.  Your writer has great enthusiasm but no school education on Opera.  Most of the audience in Opera House have the same situation. We all love Opera performance but like most of us, we have no school education.   So my observations are shared by my other Opera lover readers, hence we have empathy in between. We are not musicians, but we notice some details to share to help and advance warn director, artists, and administrators for better performance. 

Money buys comfort, but money does not buy happiness. Money buys you an Opera ticket but you enjoy by yourself.  Here in Izmir, this is a once in a life time opportunity to watch an extraordinary Opera performance. This article is written after I had the opportunity to be in Izmir Opera house for LaSonnambula Opera performance. LaSonnanbula Opera was on Alhambra Stage in Izmir Opera House on last November 26-27-29.

I could not understand anything of this Opera work during the first listening to the Cd performance. In the second run, I started to follow the music and the tune, now it is more than 10 times of listening and I can follow the work. It is a complete melodic music / "bel canto".

There are a number of complete release in YouTube videos, I choose the NewYork Metropolitan Opera House 2009 performance adapted to present day Manhattan environment with beautiful French Collature Nathalie Dessay as the best.  Nathalie Dessay is the right choice for this role. She was also great in paris Opera house performance adapted to Paris environment on stage. Anna Netrebko's Vienna 2006 performance was also one of excellent performances. 

In our local CD stores, you can purchase three different "LaSonnambula Opera" performances, by Nathalie Dessay- NewYork Metropolitan, by Joan Sutherland in London Royal Opera House, and by Maria Callas 1957 Milan LaScala recordings. Maria Callas performance in 1957 in Milan was incredible.  

We have three beautiful young soprano voices alternately on stage in Izmir. The role of Amina is shared by Sopranos Birgül Su ARIÇ, Eylem Demirhan DURU and S.Evren IŞIK. I have no choice, all three had excellent performances. I watched each one of them on three nights. Believe me there is NO any other equal new Opera performance now in our local Opera programs. Others are all repertory performances  in repetition.

Opera is based on a misfortunate sleepwalking girl at wedding age. Although subject is funny but the program booklet names the Opera as "Melodrama". I feel that the Director tries to interpret the Opera as overly more dramatic. In lieu of a heartbroken man with hard facial expression, I feel that it is better to ask the artist to have frustrated, confused, funny looking acting performance. That  could be better. On NewYork Metropolitan and Paris Opera house performance, that is the case.

Tenors Murat Karahan and Erdem Erdoğan both were right choices with  great voices. I would advise them not to touch Almina physically, since they could express their frustration in betrayal misunderstanding without hard touching. I wonder if  Mrs. Director Evin Atik will have any opportunity to read this article with my humble observations.

I cannot make any distiction between our young talented beautiful Sopranos. I was greatly enchanted when they sung their arias, so nice, so melodic/ emotional/ romantic/ controlled voices. I feel that we shall see them soon on famous international Opera stages, Milan, Sydney, London, NewYork.

LaSonnambula performance is world class in Izmir Alhambra Opera House for sure. This is my humble rating as your humble Opera enthusiast writer. Believe it or not.

Izmir Alhambra Opera house was  built in 1926 as a movie theatre. In 1980s it was renovated by Ministry of Culture with financial support of local Opera lovers, and then it is operated as Opera House. Alhambra Opera House has high ceiling, good acoustics, big empty volume, comfortable chairs in red color. However I presume that backstage could be a bit cramped/ small for the   players.

Opera House was full on Monday. On Tuesday night first three rows were reserved for local protocol, who have not appeared. So we moved to front seats. When the light goes out, it is common practise to occupy the front seats everywhere. Artists do not get pleased to perform to empty seats. Ladies in charge on Parter should lead the last minute arrivals to front empty seats immediately.  

Interior environment of Alhambra Opera House is cold. There is no central heating inside. Although Izmir has natural warm temperate climate, Opera interior at night is usually cold. So I would recommend you to bring warm long coats with you. During the break, audience rushed to toilettes. Men could handle easily, but ladies had difficult situation due to insufficient number of toilet cubicles, and long queue. It is best to limit your intake of fluids prior to the Opera,  keep yourself warm and reduce the need for the toilet. 

Opera chorus was very good from start to finish. Italian Conductor Sig.Tulio Gagliardo Varas had excellent performance.  Orchestra pit in Alhambra Opera appears a bit unusual since Conductor stands up to the waist. I have no objection as long as he does not block my vision.  I listened to the orchestra performance which is not different from CDs, a more sensitive ear may say even better. 

Tall guys should stay lower in their chairs, since ladies behind them cannot see the stage. I heard a number of similar complaints from ladies sitting behind.

It is my sincere feeling that Vincenzo Bellini's "la Sonnambula/ Sleep Walking Girl" Opera is the most beautiful Opera performance at this time in the local cultural environment, hence I'm writing a very clear, because I know the repertoire of Ankara and Istanbul. There is no new performance on stage elsewhere, they are all old repetitions.

There are a number of local new Turkish Opera compositions in performance, but as long as they cannot be placed on international Opera houses, these new compositions are to be classified/ judged in separate. We have no equivalent classical composer as Puccini, Wagner, Verdi or Mozart. This is not a shortcoming. Classical ages have passed long ago. We all hope that not a classic but modern composers in the future are expected to appear.

However we have gorgeous young Opera Performers of classical composers, we have great artists. Economic décor, and costume with competant choir, the Conductor and the staff, all had excellent work performed on three nights.  I would like to congratulate them all one by one. I admire their voices, 

In Milan LaScala Opera, audience send flowers to artists, then artists try to grab them one by one without missing, the artists taking flowers.  LaScala audience is so cruel with no mercy to lower class performers. If you are an artist, director, or even a conductor, they do not like the performance, they stop applause and start shouting "boos". 

Our artists do not deserve such treatment. They deserve long round of applause. There is no need for applause during act, better to applaud at the end.

In Germany, there are daily tour busses in front of Opera houses carrying middle aged or retired opera funs from nearby small towns. They start early in the morning, make shopping in the big city, watch the evening Opera, return home.  We may also arrange such daily tours from nearby towns to Izmir Opera.

Ladies can arrange weekly alumni meetings, they may come together in any one of KemerAltı local merchant restaurants at 1800 hours, have a light diner, drink coffee and then move to Opera house. 

At 2230 hours Opera performance ended. Our Izmir Metropolitan Underground Metro system was working properly, ferries to the other side were all available. It was easy/ fast / cheap to return home late night. We felt that  Izmir Opera House is no different than any other high class cultural metropolis in Europe or in elsewhere.

For those who missed this amazing Opera performance, there is one more opportunity on December 24 Monday night as final staging in year 2012. Tickets are available in English web page "dobgm.gov.tr".

All the best for all Opera lovers in Izmir and elsewhere.

*Haluk Direskeneli is a graduate of the METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, U.S. and Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in the fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant and energy analyst with thermal power plant basic and detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of the Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.

HKW-Sud gas fired 698 Mwe combined cycle power plant in Munich Germany

Dear colleagues,

On Eastern holiday, Munich neighborhood was empty. On Monday morning, I preferred a tour within Munich city center. On my walking route I noticed a new gas fired thermal power plant generating 698 Mwe electricty to the 110 kV major transmission, and also generating low pressure heating steam for nearby district heating. No pollution, no feeling for any Nox emission, only 3 km far from my house and it is in the city. It was so surprising, as well as  very educating experience.

All the best from Munchen, Deutschland.

Technical details are as follows

Munchen Sud

Location: Bayern, Germany

Operator: Stadtwerke Munchen

Configuration: 362-MW, 2+1 CCGT with V94 gas turbines, 

471-MW, 2+1 CCGT with 9001E gas turbines CHP

Fuel: natural gas, oil

Operation: 1979-2005

HRSG supplier: Balck

T/G supplier: Siemens, GE, Alstom, Elin

EPC: Siemens, VA TECH, MAB Anlagenbau

Quick facts: The Gud2 block cost €200mn and re-used some components of an old WTE power plant. The site has been used for power generation since 1899. The architect for Gud2 was fcg-architekten

With best regards
Haluk Direskeneli, Munich, Germany

KANGAL 457 MWe Thermal Power Plant for Sale

Dear Colleagues,
We have received recent initiatives for cancellation of earlier privatization tenders since their final sale prices were found lower than expected. Market price is the last price. All other estimations are wishful thinking. If there is a risk for cancellation, then there will be less interest for participation to new privatization tenders. Political power should know that this is a serious business and market forces can not be tamed so randomly.  Long awaited Public Auction will take place on 8th  February 2013 Friday afternoon at 1500 hours. We would like to remind you the last minute recommendations on the pricing and risk appetites of participants herein below. Investor risk appetite was quite high in Kangal 457 MWe Thermal power plant privatization. There were 7 investor groups which have applied for pre-qualification for auction participation, These were,

Bereket Enerji Üretim AŞ
Limak İnşaat Sanayi ve Ticaret AŞ
Torunlar Gıda Sanayi ve Ticaret AŞ
Gür-Tem Madencilik Turizm ve Ticaret Ltd. Şti.
IC İçtaş Enerji Üretim -Fernas İnşaat JV
Konya Şeker - Siyahkalem Mühendislik JV
YDA İnşaat- Çelikler Taahhüt- Özgün Yapı JV

It is our feeling that under prevailing market expectations based on 8-10 years of payback period, the final price may exceed 1.500 billion US $ on Friday. This coal mine, which produces the coal requirements of the Kangal Thermal Power Plant (457 MWe) is located 30 km south of Kangal (Sivas) city center. Coal mine site is licensed to Public Electric Generation Company. It has been operated by a local private contracting company since 1989 under  20-year long term agreement. 
Coal contract is renewed with a new group for one-year only until turnover in privatization. Plant property will be sold, whereas coal basin will be transferred for a certain period.     
All three Steam boilers were designed by Hungarian Ganz-Rock under license of German EVT company (Now Alstom). General contractor of plant construction was TransElectro of Hungary, Steam Turbines (150-150- 157 MWe) were supplied by MHI of Japan.  
Date of commission is 1989 for 1st unit, year 1990 for 2nd unit and year 2000 for the 3rd unit. The 3rd unit has sufficient size FGD unit but need ESP enlargement and rehabilitation. Hence 1-2 units will need new ESP enlargement and complete new FGD installations.
At the Kalburçayırı section with proven 142 million coal reserves, coal production is still continued in two seams, each at 7 meters thickness on average, the overburden thickness is 42 meters above seam and interburden thickness is 20 meters between seams. The stripping amount of the overburden and interburden is approximately 30m tons per year, for an annual coal production of 5.4 million tons to meet the fuel demands of the Kangal mine mouth thermal power plant. With other two nearby coal basins, total proven reserves reach to 203 million tons. 
In Kangal (Sivas) thermal power plant, there was an ongoing rehabilitation order on 1st and 2nd units as placed by the Public Electricity Generation Company to the OEM supplier without any competitive tender. Rehab is now completed. 
Kangal thermal plant is in the Sivas province at a far distance where we all forget but expect the plant to generate 457 MWe electricity for the national grid. Kangal coal will need further calorific value enrichment of the available coal prior to feeding to coal mills. Coal has LHV between 990- 1210 kcal/kg, 48% water, 23% ash, 1.93% sulphur average as received at site. 
Kangal 457 MWe TPP price is first estimated to be between 500-700 million $, however now more than 1.500 billion US$ considered in market due to high participation. That figure may reach higher but at that time becomes unrealistic/ unreasonable/ difficult to finance. 
Ebitda in Kangal is not so good under upfront estimations at this time, however project is promising to be twice after privatization, that is why investor risk appetite is high. Investors should take calculated risks and are not to be blindfolded gamblers in Kangal. In Kangal 457 Mwe TPP sales, risk is in nearby coal, prevailing local coal price delivered to the plant is approx 2.00 US$/ MmBtu which may be reduced to less  with further investments on mechanization. 
Plant  availability may get higher after privatization during further rehabilitation and better upgrading. Restructuring and reorganization are deemed necessary after privatization scheme. 
Do note that Plant is on the remote mountain region,  far from Sivas city center, with almost no major dwellings nearby, so there is almost no local reaction, almost no risk of EIA. Payback period of plants in privatizations in Turkey has reached to 8-10 years now due to high investment appetite for complete power plants already in operation.  
Kangal thermal power plant sales in privatization will be an excellent application for John Nash's Game Theory. Please make your calculated risks, put a ceiling to your financial capacity and do not exceed that threshold. Valuation of a generation asset is not only taking into account financial and operational figures. It also covers strategy, risk appetite, market share and possible upstream and downstream integration(s).  Aggressive risk appetite of local groups are very different from reputable global energy players. 
Your Comments are always welcome. 

HalukDireskeneli at gmail.com,  Munich, Germany

Further notes..
Kangal 457 Mwe thermal power plant is sold
on 8th February 2013 afternoon
at open auction between 7 participants
to KonyaSeker SiyahKalem JV
for 985 million US$
at reasonable price with relatively easy project finance
ready to consume generated electricity within group companies at low price
with almost estimated 7 years payback-
at low risk appetite shown by the market- with almost no risk of cancellation,
with nearby proven coal reserves sufficient for next 40 years in 3 regions
rehab cost estimated 40-50 million US Dollars to be spent next 5-6 years