Electricity Exports to Syria: Opportunity or Risk?

Recently, Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, made a noteworthy announcement: Turkey plans to triple its electricity exports to Syria. As part of this initiative, a new transmission line with a capacity of 500 megawatts (later to increase to 1000 MWe) will be commissioned between Birecik and Aleppo. Given Turkey’s installed electricity capacity (2025) of over 117,000 megawatts, supplying this amount of power does not present a technical challenge. However, this issue extends far beyond technical feasibility—it carries significant economic and political implications. How Will Syria Pay for This Electricity? War-torn for over a decade, Syria remains in a dire economic state. Its infrastructure is decimated, and political instability persists. Under such conditions, it’s highly questionable whether Syria can consistently finance such a large-scale energy import. Previous payment collection problems remain fresh in memory. What happens if payments are not made? Either electricity exports will be suspended, or Turkish taxpayers will shoulder the cost. In effect, we might end up sending free electricity to Syria, which could place further pressure on domestic electricity prices. Is There a Formal Agreement? What About Transparency? With such a large-scale export plan made public, one of the first questions that arises is: Is there a formal agreement with Syria? If so, why haven’t the technical and financial details been disclosed to the public? If not, are we embarking on a project without legal and contractual grounding? These uncertainties complicate energy policymaking and raise concerns about transparency. And Then There’s the Cost As of 2025, the cost of electricity production in Turkey varies by energy source: natural gas, imported coal, lignite, hydro, solar, wind, geothermal, and nuclear—all have different costs. On average, the production cost ranges from $0.07 to $0.10 per kilowatt-hour (kWh). Let’s assume the 500 MW line operates for 8,000 hours annually: 500 MW x 8,000 hours = 4 million MWh Average cost: $0.10/kWh → Annual cost: $400 million This means the electricity Turkey plans to send to Syria would cost approximately $400 million per year. Whether and how much of this amount will be recovered remains uncertain. Diplomacy Is Important, But Economics Shouldn’t Be Ignored Turkey is justified in using energy exports as a tool of foreign policy. Aspiring to be a regional power requires it. However, this ambition must be grounded in economic reality. Strategic objectives must be pursued with transparency and financial accountability. Otherwise, actions taken today under the banner of diplomacy may become tomorrow’s financial burden for the public. Our energy policy should extend a helping hand to our neighbors while also safeguarding the rights, efforts, and taxes of Turkish citizens. Ankara, May 15, 2025