Engineering Intuition and the Anticipated Great Istanbul Earthquake

Engineering intuition refers to an engineer’s ability to solve complex engineering problems by leveraging experience and knowledge. Beyond theoretical education, practical applications and accumulated experience significantly contribute to developing this intuition over time. Engineering projects are often fraught with uncertainties, where conventional calculation methods may fall short. In such cases, engineering intuition enables engineers to understand intricate systems, anticipate potential risks, and devise effective solutions. This skill, honed over time, is critical for success in engineering practices. For a newly graduated engineer, confidence in the accuracy of calculations is not guaranteed. You perform calculations but cannot always be certain of their precision. Today, as electric vehicle charging and battery issues dominate discussions, alternative solutions like hydrogen energy are also being explored. We have ideas about the future of thermal power plants, but how much of this is grounded in accurate information? Experienced engineers possess "intuition" that helps assess whether certain applications are feasible. Is a structural profile suitable for the load it must bear? In a city at high seismic risk, like Istanbul, is it prudent to continue constructing column-beam reinforced concrete buildings? Why, for decades, have Japan and the United States used steel lattice structures for skyscrapers, while all skyscrapers in the Istanbul Financial Center, except for the slightly more expensive steel-structured Central Bank building, were built using traditional column-beam reinforced concrete? In a potential major earthquake, reinforced concrete buildings unable to withstand lateral loads are at risk of inevitable collapse. In Turkish universities, only reinforced concrete construction techniques are taught, yet in earthquake-prone regions, buildings should utilize steel lattice structures. Tunnel formwork systems are safer in this regard. Is it appropriate to construct runways on filled soil at the new Istanbul Airport? Have enough piles been driven beneath the runways? We will only know if the number of piles is sufficient during a potential earthquake. Who will evaluate the accuracy of investment decisions made by politicians, driven by fleeting ideas or uninformed political motives, such as those conceived during a helicopter flyover? Ankara, 18 May 2025