Monday, May 31, 2010

New Risk Assessment on Iskenderun bay

Dear Colleagues

We are facing the most unpleasant military offensive in the history of our Republic. All our basic defense assumptions, all our alliances, partnerships, all our defense strategies have completely changed. In our geography, as was always acknowledged in the past, we have to survive by depending on our own strength. There is no alliance, no partnership, and the bare reality is that we are all alone.

It is not the time to respond, nor strike back overnight, no rush for any counteroffensive, but we should strengthen our borders, defend our strategic points, and wait for the appropriate timing for any response if necessary.

This is a humiliation by a rogue state. Hostility cannot remain unanswered. Reciprocity is the rule of the international relations. One should stay cool to wait until an appropriate time appears for a proper response.

There is another nasty development regarding our new imported coal firing thermal power plants on the Iskenderun Bay seacoast.

This region was the ideal location for imported coal firing thermal power plant investments, with no forest, no agricultural land, all remote almost uninhabited territory that is still close to imported coal transportation and exposed to relatively low environmental reactions.

The following ongoing projects are new energy investments in the Iskenderun Bay region:

SuGözü isken Evonik Germany with local partner Oyak for a new additional third unit of 600 MWe imported coal firing thermal power plant;

Suez new imported coal firing thermal power plant to generate 1200 MWe in Yumurtalik, EIA is recently received

Diler Electric 600 MWe imported coal firing thermal power plant next to their iron and steel mills in Iskenderun bay;

Sarp Electric of Bilgin Energy group 1215 MWe imported coal firing thermal power plant in Yumurtalik county of Iskenderun Bay;

Akfen Energy group 450 MWe thermal power plant in Yumurtalik county, in feasibility stage;

CEZ Czech with local Aken in Erzin county of ıskenderun bay for 900 MWe naturalgas firing new combined cycle power plant, with EIA certification.

However, it now appears that Iskenderun is a high-risk zone for new investments in our region with relatively higher risk insurance premiums. That is the cost of the latest developments, and since investors are to pay, so are the consumers.

Last but not least, Akkuyu Nuclear power plant site is approximately one hundred km west of Iskenderun bay, and within reach of the same risk exposure. Therefore the nuclear power plant construction site selection is to be reconsidered under the light of new developments in the area.

We are displeased by the possibility that any insurgent group or any hit team of a rogue state with portable missiles mounted on speed boats could attack existing or future onshore thermal power plants if necessary defense measures are not taken immediately.

In the end, we would advise that investors are to reconsider new thermal power plants at minemouth locations based on firing local indigenous coal.

Haluk Direskeneli, Ankara based Energy Analyst,


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