Could #Trump become President of the USA?
The first TV debate between US Presidential Candidates will take place on September 26, 2016. Later debates will be on October 9th and 19th to face with each other. During live debates on TV screens, candidates will respond to questions from anchor speakers, and also criticize each other within given time periods. Afterwards we shall read the evaluations on the printed press how capable they were.
Donald Trump is a TV star. He has his own very popular reality show "Apprentice" on TV with high ratings. He is very comfortable on the TV screen. In a TV debate, your writer feels that Mrs. Hillary Clinton has no chance to win the sessions. Mrs. Clinton has other problems to solve, such as her undisclosed unverified pneumonia and parkinson health rumors, confidential private emails during her FM tenure, and her difficulties and mismanagement during misfortunate Benghazi disaster. These are not so easy to cope in near future.
We are sure that she will continue the existing Foreign policy of the Obama administration with the same stalemate without any new solutions to the current world affairs. Mrs. Hillary Clinton has an eroding image in the discourse. Whereas Donald Trump has more fun, with solutions good or bad questionable, he is easy to improvise, easy to understand, with many solutions to ongoing problems, and flexible to apologize when and where necessary.
Your author does not believe the US pre-election public opinion polls. Donald Trump has an ongoing rating band of 40-42%. Hillary Clinton seems to be in the 46-48% band, but it seems that the gap is getting smaller very day.
Mrs. Hillary Clinton emerges as true follower if not designer of the current Obama foreign policies. She does not bring anything new. Donald Trump reveals more radical public decision for US voters. These are very attractive initiatives for average US voters, such as deportation of undocumented illegal immigrants, opening and exploitation of the coal mines for more employment and more jobs for coal country. These new policies reverse the existing norms and overtakes very attractive terms for average US voters. Bernie Sanders, would be more tough opponent for Donald Trump in social policies.
Donald Trump also promotes more isolation from the problems of the outside world, the Middle East, Afghanistan. He is inexperienced in foreign relations so he will try to avoid any further involvement. He promises no adventures in the foreign lands. So, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan wars will be left to neighboring geographies to solve. USA will withdraw foot soldiers and avoid land operations there. US arms manufacturers are traditionally support Republican candidates. So US arm manufacturers will continue to sell conventional weapons to these conflict regions to let them to kill each other. We are left to our destiny on our south border. US involvement will be limited to air strikes through drones with no pilots. Furthermore US visa applications will be more stringent. It will be difficult to get US visa. It will be to difficult to make business with USA in the long run.
Please do note that the "Trump Tower" which is located in Kustepe Mecidiyekoy Istanbul, does not belong to Donald Trump. Trump sold license, projects, architectural services, and right to use his name for Shopping mall, business center and accommodation facilities. "Trump Tower" in Istanbul is financed, constructed, promoted and operated by a Turkish real estate investment group.
Donald Trump does not have any direct investments in Turkey. He is a successful investor on entertainment centers, hotels, golf courses. In order to have Trump investments in Turkey, Turkish investment environment should get improved, and Turkey should get better financing evaluations from rating agencies in the long run.
Your writer finds always fun to follow foreign policies. I review cartoons which mock most foreign politicians. Putin (63) is described as naked, macho, in harsh attitude with green military camouflage pants. Cartoonists often love Putin. Putin is seen as a counter balance against Western leaders.
Obama (55) is lean, long, thin in black business suit with big ears in cartoons. I watch Donald Trump (70), Hillary Clinton (68), Bernie Sanders (74) in funny cartoons with pleasure.
Cartoonists love to exaggerate particulars of the politicians with uncomfortable details. Donald Trump's hair style, his small hands, obesity, Hillary Clinton's weird pants to cover her large basin, her high cheekbones, Bernie's advancing age. Politicians are to stand to cartoonists' hard cruel sense of humor at all times. They need to have hard skin to stand. Donald Trump has a thick hard skin. He is unconcerned and indifferent to hard satire that cartoonists draw, and he presumes credit for every appearance on the printed press. There is nothing else to do. Politicians are to get used to all that satire.
Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair was drawn as poodle dog, due to his unconditional support of US foreign policies. The next Prime Minister David Cameron once accidentally pronounced "condom" in one of his public speeches. He is drawn with condom on his head from that date on.
The new British Prime Minister Mrs Theresa May(59) has crow's nose, hump back, feminist attitude, in funny cloths, especially with her leopard print heel shoes, as appeared in her cartoons.
German Chancellor Mrs. Angela Merkel (62) is depicted as nude, short, fat, submissive. American Painter Vincent Desiderio has a famous painting names "Sleep" where men and women sleep naked in the same bed. There are cartoons using the same theme, where Angela Merkel sleeps naked with other politicians. Merkel does not deserve them all. She is well educated, beautiful lovely lady. But in politics, one has to be resistant to all unreasonable irrational rouge hard criticism. In the last regional elections, in her own constituency, Merkel lost her public support and dropped to third place due to her immigration policies. She had incorrect inappropriate domestic policies for incoming refugee problem. She lost her chance to become the next Chancellor in the next period. Other European countries took hard decisions for refugee problems. They refuse to have refugees in Poland, Hungary, Czech, Austria.
A recent report has appeared in British tabloid DailyMail on Donald Trump's third and last wife 1970 Slovenia born Melanie Trump (46). Upon her arrival to the USA in 1996, she was with fashion model (and even escort) agency. Donald Trump responded "It is not my subject, ask to Melanie". Melanie Trump opened 150 million US dollar defamation lawsuit against the newspaper. The Newspaper later corrected the story and said that Melanie worked with fashion agency within legal terms. "Melanie was not an escort, she worked as a legal model," they made adjustments.
Cartoonists and satirists have freedom of expression, and it is impossible unreasonable to prevent their freedom of expression in Western democracies. Their band of criticism is too wide in the Western world. The youngest Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio(45) told for his rival Donald Trump (70) "his hands are too small", meaning an old-age obscene remark. Trump after three marriages with five children, responded with confidence, "And, he referred to my hands -- 'if they're small, something else must be small.' I guarantee you there's no problem. I guarantee." Republicans are very casual for such obscene remarks waist down.
But that obscene remark was pronounced and cartoonists loved that statement and started to draw Trump with small hands. Naked Trump statues were installed in one early morning in major city parks. People loved to take selfie photos with that identical naked Trump fiber sculptures.
We shall miss President Barrack H. Obama for sure. He was a real intellectual, humanist, environmentalist, a model father and husband with full of humor. He avoided US foot soldiers in conflict zones. ObamaCare social security for all poor was his initiative.
Could Trump become the President of the United States? The answer is YES. He may get elected and become the next President in November 2016 US Presidential elections. If Hollywood star Ronald Reagan could become the US President for two consecutive terms, businessman and prominent TV star Donald Trump can become the next President. So all these satirical cartoons, sculptures may work for Donald Trump, we all have fun to enjoy. We columnists will have ample wording to write every day.
Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.
Ankara, 16 September 2016