Energy Market Analysis for the 2016 American Presidential Elections

Dear Readers,

The next Presidential elections in the United States will be in year 2016. In the last two-term Obama administration, American Democrats appear to be worn-out. Obama's cautious, rational foreign policy and his economic and geopolitical expectations were not enough. Democrats were unable to perform most of their social promises, i.e. ObamaCare.

Oil in the Middle East and Europe gas supply pipeline in Ukraine could not be controlled. The necessary precautions could not be taken upfront. They could not control events. Early preventive interventions could not be enforced in times of crisis. The interventions which are being considered in Northern Iraq and Eastern Syria against terrorist establishments were too late, hence the enemy is unclear to specify. Fighting on land in this region is too risky, it is much better to avoid interference which seems auspicious in times of conflict in the Middle East in order not to get harmed.

Democratic presidential candidate Mrs. Hillary Clinton (66) will have hard times to persuade the majority of the eligible US voters. When she was the Secretary of State, Mrs. Hillary Clinton has lost credibility in her late responses during crisis especially in Benghazi,Libya and her mismanagement in the incident what happened to the late American Ambassador. Those unpleasant incidents, her delays in action, her security weaknesses and her mismanagement to give proper attention to the crisis have cost her loss of the great prestige. She graduated from Yale law School and worked as attorney in her own office. 

During her post- ministerial period, Mrs. Hillary Clinton released her new book on her experiences in her tenure in the State Department. The name of her book is "Hard Choices". In her book, she writes in careful language to describe the merits of our new Prime Minister "The Hodja".

Mrs. Hillary Clinton appreciates his academic knowledge, his intellectual capability. However she also says that his academic capability is not updated with the current world events, with his new political experiences.

Similarly new US Secretary of State, John Kerry has discomfort in their mutual press conferences. When his counterpart starts long sentences which are prepared during his past academic studies from his memory, whether it is related or unrelated with the current situation, the face expressions of Mr. Kerry become changed. He stops listening and interrupts the conversation. He is bored with the same pre-prepared conference wording. John Kerry has majored in political science at Yale University in 1960s. He was a Vietnam war veteran, decorated with war medals. In his later years he joined anti-war movement and he had wide experience in world politics. He fluently speaks French and some other foreign languages which is not so usual for an US Secretary of State since most top level American politicians do not speak foreign languages. There is a common feeling that an American who speaks a foreign language is probably an immigrant.

Mr. Kerry was the Democratic presidential candidate in the past and he lost the general elections to George W. Bush. So he can not be re-nominated in the next elections. Similarly former Republican candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney have little chance to get re-nominated, since they both lost the past elections.

Yesterday was left in yesterday. Ottoman period in the Middle East is in the long past with nice pleasant memories for modern Turks. Ottomans were wiped out of the history in 1918. Since 1918, the world has faced with WW1, WW2, Korean war, Vietnam war, Afghan war, Iraq war. All these wars reshaped the world, as well as strategies, and policies. In the Islamic world, especially the Arab world has their own expectations, their own visions, their own policies, and none wants to have a big brother to tell what to do on this behalf.

Every individual country has his own national policy to fulfill their own ambitions. Particularly in complex Arab world, we must understand that new Ottomans, namely new Turks can not lead this region, as in the past centuries. World history did not end with the exhaustion of the Ottomans in 1918.

Those long distances which were passed by walking or on horseback, are now completed in very short period of time on choppers in today's modern armies. Weapons are changed. Their destruction capabilities have reached to immense levels. From the other end of the world, unmanned aerial vehicles are flown over enemy lines without taking risk of any human casualty. Battles are moved to other mediums, such as virtual space. Internet, Youtube, Twitter, WhatsApp, Facebook, Linkedin are used for intelligence gathering and in psychological warfare.

From consulting to the President, to high prestigious job of US Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger's rising career is very interesting. Kissinger was born in Bavaria Germany in year 1923 to a Jewish family. They emigrated to USA in 1938. In WW2, he fought in Germany with the rank of US Sergeant. After the war, with the support of "GI Bill" scholarship for the war veterans, he joined to Harvard University and earned his doctorate degree (Ph.D) in political science. He was then invited to the Presidential circle as the political consultant with high academic credentials. He became US Secretary State between 1973-77. Over time, he became very successful. He created new applications such as "Shuttle diplomacy", "détente" in new international relations into practice. Despite of ongoing hot war between US and Vietnam, he operated secret negotiations with North Vietnam, and he has made a huge contribution to the termination of the war. He received the Nobel peace prize. Since he was not born in the USA, he had no right to be a Presidential candidate.

Among the Republican candidates, there are former deputies of presidential candidates, state governors, former advisors to Presidents.

We have candidate names, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Sarah Palin, Condolleez Rice, and more.

We feel that the most important candidate, is the younger brother of former President George W.Bush, namely Florida Governor "Jeb" Bush (61). Please do note his name. Although his mother "Barbara Bush" is very reluctant for the third Presidential candidate from her family, if the "Bush" family decides to promote the youngest "Bush", they have definitely high chance of winning the game. He is a graduate of University of Texas, from Department of International Relations with major in Latin America. He speaks Spanish fluently. He will surely get all Latin votes. He will the first Latin President in the USA.

If Republicans win the Presidential elections, they do not hesitate to interfere the hot wars in the Middle East, in order to secure their energy supply routes. For better national economic output, for more growth, to earn more money in new conventional weapon manufacturing, they love to move not only with air force but also by foot soldiers on land for hot wars in the Middle East, namely Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya etc. We worry that all these war initiatives affect us directly in our geography.

It is our sincere feeling that Pan-Islamic, New Ottoman foreign policies are to be avoided by all means, since they are not practical, nor have any meaning in the fragile insecure unreliable relations in the top level decision makers of the lands of the Middle East. New energy policies, new energy diplomacy, new ways of security in communications, warfare and technological superiority will heavily dominate the foreign relations.

Ankara, 16 September, 2014

Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public and, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP, Entergy), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as a freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of METU Alumni and the Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.

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