Energy Professionals, Dear
and businesses are always shaped by expectations, just as market
expectations are important in economic forecasts themselves. Within
our professional capacity, we have tried to outline a draft forecast
for the upcoming days. While it may not necessarily foresee the
future in all its detail, it is better to have one, rather than none.
Here are our short term new year predictions:
Nation could not yet
recuperate from the unexpected events and after shocks of the last
15-July coup. National healing is continued in a slow pace. Mass
demonstrations were a part of this healing process. We do not know
nor estimate how long it will last. We are unable to put sound
reasoning to the events that took place that night and thereafter.
The army, air force and navy are minimized in size and so humiliated
at proportions not ever seen before in the national history.
Minimizing size of military forces are general tendency in modern
times provided that increase in rapid and heavy strike capability are
essential. That is acceptable. Humiliation is unacceptable. Closure
of prestigious national heritage war schools are not acceptable. We
always need strong army in our geography for our survival.
measures are necessary in the long run. Last but not least,
commentators foresee that the last putsch may take place in the
Parliament. New opposition may emerge from the ruling party itself.
That may appear in the next working session of the Parliament which
would start later this year. That is also the time for ending second
3-month emergency period after 15-July coup attempt. This is why
ruling party asks other two opposition parties to join public
solidarity in democratic union in mass demonstrations. If the last
coup would succeed then we could have faced with unprecedented
bloodshed everywhere. So any undemocratic counter attempt must be
stopped upfront by all means.
Common consensus as
created by independent foreign military commentators openly and
frankly say that USA (and Nato forces) should leave Incirlik air base
for the long term and they should move to relatively more secure or
tranquil place such as Southern Cyprus, Northern Iraq, wherever they
would feel more comfortable, more independent, more free to maneuver
in the Middle East. USA will follow their indifference policy towards
international events due to transfer of power after US Presidential
August meetings which were held in St. Petersburg, Russians asked
compensation upfront for downed SU-24 war plane for sure. On
negotiation table behind closed doors, there were negotiations for
new prices on natural gas sales, more concessions on 63 bcm capacity
Turkish Stream underwater pipeline construction project and better
terms for 4800 MWe nuclear contract etc. We should note that in the
long term Mersin Akkuyu nuclear project may also serve as a new
Russian military seaport on Mediterranean coast to reinforce Russian
presence on hot seas.
European Union has frozen
accession meetings completely for participation since all remedy
requests are returned with futile responses. Luxemburg, Germany,
Austria, Sweden, Denmark have already voiced necessary applicable
counter measures. Death penalty, sexual abuse under 15 are
unacceptable for Europeans.
S&P and then Moody's rating agencies have lowered our financial
credibility to junk level, the other international rating agency
(Fitch) is clever to postpone their Turkish ratings, however we all
know that their late declaration is also meaning low rating for our
investment environment. Rating agencies ask for transparency, rule of
law, fair competition in our local market.
countries are completely ignorant of the events which took place at
our environment since they have worse incidents they face every day.
Their foreign ministries released copy paste declarations for support
of ruling party one after another.
supply security is also within our prime concerns. Our installed
capacity has reached to 80 GWe, and peak demand at 44 GWe in August
2016. Our local lignite production was 50+ million metric tons in
2016. Hard coal was 2 million metric tons. Imported hard coal was 30
million metric tons.
have good deals with Iran due to our favorable gas purchase
agreements. However due to their increased internal gas demand, they
stopped sending gas to our system. We have gas supply and energy
generation drop in our energy markets.
National Security is to
be reinforced since SouthEast insurgency may get worse. The people in
SouthEast may look for their own solution after arrests of their
members of parliament. As seen everywhere in the world, such as in
Ireland, Scotland, Bask in Spain, if minorities are not represented
in the parliament, then they may look for their alternative
recent tax 15 $ per ton imposed on imported coal could be a deterrent
figure for future investments for imported coal firing thermal power
plants. Anyhow the latest thermal power plants are exclusively built
by Chinese companies due to their ultra low lump sum turnkey prices,
covered by cheap PBoC project financing. However these plants have
poor design, they have low spares, short life span. If you
desperately need electricity generation, then price is not so
important. The tax will be collected by our Treasury, and end price
is also taxed so our Treasury will get all money from both ends, all
other parties are intermediaries in the long run.
the other hand, 6 US cents per kwh electricity purchase guarantee for
local coal firing energy generation is a good booster for newcomer
investors. However it is not so pleasing to place orders to Chinese
contractors just because of their ultra cheap turnkey prices for new
local coal firing thermal power plant investments. These plants do
not meet national standard, norms, rules, regulations, laws. They
have poor design which are not applicable for local coal, they have
limited or almost no spares and high breakdown, low availability and
low life span during operation.
tenders for local coal firing thermal power plants are in Cayirhan-2,
Eskişehir, Konya, Trakya. Soma and Çan projects are ongoing. There
are still imported coal firing projects in Çanakkale, Aliağa,
Amasra, Iskenderun bay although imported coal is not encouraged any
postponement epidemic in the local markets spreads to low capital-
small companies. that will be a high impact on our economy despite of
unrealistic pictures as pronounced by public officials. People has
lost confidence to public declarations. Foreign exchange rates may
dive low in time.
under code name "prison reform" released large number of
convicts, from overpopulated local prisons to make space for the
accused of latest coup incident. We hope that courts work in time
properly, rule of law is established, justice is ruled as in the
of Russian Ambassador
Hon. Andrei Karlov (RIP),
in Ankara Modern Arts Gallery on 19th December night, was another
misfortunate and sad incident for Turkey. There will be important
consequences in time.
believe that these are a few warning indicators, of which you will
seldom read such candid forecast from a local source for our home
environment anywhere else. We
would be pleased to receive your comments and feedback over the
course of the upcoming year.
is a wide range consensus for low profile public appearance. People
deactivate their accounts in social media. They are not interested in
any public expression. Newspaper columns are repetition of earlier
articles. People are indifferent to every event since so many things
have happened in the near past with no reasoning no meaning we can
name. Immigration applications among academics and young
professionals are on high rise.
do note that my latest eBook is in the following link to download.
New Year and Merry Christmas to you all !!
Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department
(1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV
companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail
design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power
plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy
analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software
expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities
and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber
of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.
article is written for the "EurasiaReview" news web site.
29 December, 2016