The Impending Marmara Earthquake and the Reality of Turkey’s Earthquake Resilience

written by Haluk Direskeneli The minor earthquake (6.1 Reichter) that occurred on April 23, 2025, offered a brief moment of relief for the people of Istanbul and surrounding areas. However, experts emphasize that this was not the earthquake we’ve been expecting in the Marmara region—on the contrary, it may have intensified the stresses that could lead to the much-feared major rupture. The reality is clear: a major earthquake in the Marmara Sea is inevitable. Istanbul is the heart of Turkey’s economy. A major earthquake in this megacity—home to both production and finance—would not only cripple Istanbul but could bring the entire country to its knees. This is not just a natural disaster risk; it is a matter of national security. If the economy stalls and production halts, both Turkey’s economic and political independence could suffer significantly. Experts have made it clear that stress is accumulating in the Marmara region, and that these smaller tremors might be precursors to a much larger rupture. There remains an unbroken 40 to 50 km segment of the Kumburgaz Fault. If it connects with the Adalar Fault, the potential for a magnitude 7.5 earthquake becomes very real. Scientific data, including analysis of the historic 1766 and 1912 earthquakes, supports this scenario. The energy beneath the Marmara is building—and that pressure will eventually find release. Earthquake science is not based on personal opinions; it is grounded in data, analysis, and international academic standards. A claim can only be considered scientific if it is backed by methodology, evidence, peer review, and publication history. Otherwise, it is not science—it is speculation. Turkey’s past, particularly in the wake of the 1999 earthquake, is filled with missed opportunities. Yet since then, national and international research has clearly outlined the risks facing Marmara. So what must be done? The answer is clear: earthquake-resilient cities must be built. This means not just strengthening buildings, but also making governance, infrastructure, the public, and the economy resilient. This transformation, outlined in six key pillars by the scientific community, requires cooperation between national and local authorities. Infrastructure projects like roads, bridges, and factories are important—but ensuring public safety must come first. Countries like Japan and Taiwan have demonstrated that it’s possible to survive major earthquakes with minimal casualties. This has only been achieved through years of education, investment, and unwavering commitment. Turkey must adopt the same mindset and act with urgency—transforming not just Istanbul, but all its cities, with determination and continuity. This is not a task for boardrooms; it requires 24/7 fieldwork, public engagement, and cross-sector collaboration. An earthquake may be inevitable—but destruction doesn’t have to be. Through scientific truth, careful planning, and national mobilization, Turkey can prepare for the Marmara earthquake. If we start today, we can protect tomorrow. Ankara 7 May 2025